075
FXUS66 KPDT 081020
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
220 AM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOW A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING ACROSS THE PACNW, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST OR TO SOUTHEAST
WA. NORTH OF THIS BAND, AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ALONG THE WA
CASCADE EAST SLOPES AND IN THE YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS HAS
MANAGED TO SURVIVE AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
TO MODERATE BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL TAP INTO
AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK PLUME OF MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 5.5KFT THROUGH THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN MOSTLY RAIN
FALLING BELOW THE HIGHEST PEAKS ACROSS THE OR CASCADES AND THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BANDS OF RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF OR AND FAR SOUTHEAST WA
THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING AND THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. A SHORTWAVE
ARRIVING TO THE REGION THE LATTER HALF OF TODAY WILL PULL THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH WHILE DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO
3KFT TO 4.5KFT BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE
OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CASCADES AND BLUES THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH NBM CHANCES OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN 50-75% FOR
THE BLUES AND OR CASCADES ABOVE 4.5KFT. OTHERWISE, SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN QUITE MEAGER FOR THE WA CASCADES, WITH ONLY A 20-40%
CHANCE OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. PRIOR TO THE CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW, THERE IS A 75-95% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE BLUES AND THE OR CASCADES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RISES IN RIVERS/STREAMS IN THE ASSOCIATED DRAINAGE BASINS,
THOUGH AT THIS TIME ALL RIVER FORECASTS REMAIN BELOW ACTION
STAGE.
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TODAY WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES, WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 40 MPH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST AND THE
INTERIOR NORTHERN BLUES AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL BRIEFLY
EARLY MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING, FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION INTO
A SPLIT FLOW THAT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY,
WITH TRANSIENT RIDGING NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER THIS
PATTERN, HOWEVER, CLUSTER AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
ROUNDING A LOW TO THE SOUTH AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR,
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, AND THE STRAWBERRYS/ELKHORNS/WALLOWAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE
AREAS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: BY EARLY FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS
SHOW A TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SETTING UP
OFFSHORE THE PACNW. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
STRENGTH OF POSITION OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE (50-65%) IN AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND
OVERNIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LAWHORN/82
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
TO ABOVE 90% ACROSS THE BDN AND RDM AREAS BEFORE 12Z WHILE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TO 80% AT MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. AS FOR LOCAL IMPACTS, THE CEILINGS WILL
BE REDUCES, BUT THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT POINT TO LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. MODEL ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC STATS SUGGEST CAPPING
THE CHANCES FOR SUB 1,000 FT CEILINGS TO AT 50% AND CHANCES FOR
SUB 500 FT CIGS ARE EVEN LOWER. THE DLS TERMINAL MIGHT BE THE
OUTLIER WITH ABOUT A 40 TO 50 % CHANCE FOR CEILINGS BELOW 500FT.
LIKEWISE YKM MIGHT WILL BE IMPROVING OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT. RUSSELL/71
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 35 50 30 46 / 90 20 0 0
ALW 37 49 33 47 / 90 40 0 0
PSC 36 55 30 49 / 60 10 0 0
YKM 32 49 28 45 / 30 10 0 0
HRI 36 53 29 47 / 70 10 0 0
ELN 30 45 28 42 / 30 10 0 0
RDM 27 45 23 45 / 40 0 0 0
LGD 34 45 26 46 / 90 40 0 0
GCD 33 43 26 46 / 80 10 0 0
DLS 37 52 34 47 / 60 20 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...71
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