841
FXUS66 KPDT 090601
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1001 PM PST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW, LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS.
- A WEAK PLUME OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
DESCHUTES COUNTY AND EASTERN OR MOUNTAIN.
DISCUSSION
THE RIDGE HAD BROKE DOWN INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
TODAY ALONG WITH THIS ONGOING PRECIP ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING HOURS AS PRECIP LINGER
OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. STORMTOTALQPF AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED TO 0.45
INCH OR HIGHER FOR THE LOWER ELEVATION AND 1 INCH OR HIGHER FOR THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS (THE CREST OF OR CASCADES AND NORTHWEST BLUES). THE
NBM PROBABILITY OF 24 HR PRECIPITATION SUGGESTED A 35-55% PROB OF
0.45 INCH OR MORE AND 70-90% PROB FOR 1 INCH OR MORE FOR THE CREST
OF OR CASCADES AND NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, THANKS TO THE STALLING
COLD FRONT. THE WA CASCADES MAY SEE PRECIP OF 0.25-0.35 INCH, THOUGH
THE PROBABILITY WILL BE LOW (20-40%).
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE UP TO 1 INCH OR MORE OVER THE WA
CASCADES, THE CREST OF OR CASCADES, NORTHWEST BLUES AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING (>50% PROB). HOWEVER,
THE NORTHWEST BLUES MAY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES AT 5
KFT OR BELOW, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME ADVISORY LEVEL.
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGH SNOW RATIOS, IT SEEMS TO LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR WET SNOW. HOWEVER, WE WILL MONITOR THAT AREA AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IF NEED. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS (GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS-OR, AND JOHN DAY
HIGHLANDS) AND NORTHWEST BLUES MAY RECEIVE SNOWFALL OF 0.5-1
INCH (40-80% PROB). BREEZY WINDS (GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH) WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MAJORITY
OF OUR FORECAST AREA (50-70% PROB). THE CREST OF OR CASCADES
WILL BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AT 25-35 MPH WITH THE STALLING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. NBM SUGGEST A 30-50% PROB FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A TROUGHING PATTERN EXTENDS OUTWARD TO THE
CA COAST. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY DRY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, WE MAY A WEAK PLUME OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING FOR THE
DESCHUTES COUNTY AND EASTERN OR MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN UP TO 0.05 INCH, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW (<30%). A BAND OF PRECIP WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHERE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN EVOLVES. QPF AMOUNTS WILL REACH TO 0.05 INCH WITH 0.10 INCH OR
LESS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW (<20%) AT THIS
TIME. FEASTER/97
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, LOCATIONS LIKE PDT AND
ALW WILL STILL BE PRONE TO SOME LOWER CEILINGS, IN THE IFR AND
LOWER RANGE. EXPECT VLIFR CEILINGS AT ALW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS, WHICH COULD BE AROUND
9Z BASE ON HREF (ENSEMBLE TRENDS). TERMINALS FARTHER WEST LIKE
RDM BDN AND YKM HAVE SEEN MARKED IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS,
AND WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 35 49 30 46 / 100 30 0 0
ALW 37 49 32 47 / 100 40 0 0
PSC 36 54 30 49 / 90 10 0 0
YKM 31 50 28 46 / 70 10 0 0
HRI 36 53 29 46 / 90 20 0 0
ELN 31 45 27 42 / 50 20 0 0
RDM 27 45 23 46 / 60 0 0 0
LGD 33 45 26 46 / 100 50 0 0
GCD 33 43 26 46 / 90 10 0 10
DLS 38 51 34 48 / 80 20 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...71
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