859
FXUS66 KPDT 101009
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
209 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
DISCUSSION
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
TONIGHT AS A TRANSIENT RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH IS PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF A TRANSIENT RIDGE CONTINUING TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE MID
WEEK, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR FOR NOW, A
WEAK INVERSION OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND ADJACENT VALLEYS MAY
LEAD (15-25% CHANCE) TO PATCHY STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING. HOWEVER,
ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING. LATER TODAY, THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST AS A TROUGH
WITH TWO DEFINED LOWS DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ONE OF THE LOWS WILL
MOVE INLAND AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND
SOUTHERN OR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
SWINGING OUT OF THE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BRING A DUSTING
OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS, AND
THE STRAWBERRYS/ELKHORNS/WALLOWAS.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT THE REGION,
ALLOWING A TRANSIENT RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE PACNW WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: BY EARLY FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS SHOW A TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION SETTING UP OFFSHORE THE PACNW. OVER
THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT SWINGS INLAND WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA(CONFIDENCE 60-75%). SECONDARY LOWS DIVING OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA WILL REINFORCE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS,
HOWEVER THIS WILL KEEP THE TROUGH AXIS OFFSHORE (CONFIDENCE
55-75%) THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS,
REINFORCED BY THE ENSEMBLE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER GUIDANCE, INDICATE
WEAK MOISTURE SUPPORT WITH THE TROUGH, WHICH TRANSLATES TO
MOSTLY LIGHT (BUT PERSISTENT) PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. BY SUNDAY THOUGH, THERE IS A
CLUSTER SOLUTION (<15% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) THAT INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE OR
CASCADE CREST, WITH LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AS AN IDEA OF HOW MUCH SNOW AREA MOUNTAINS MAY SEE
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE 48-HR PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS
25-40% ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST, BLUES, EAGLE CAPS, AND ELKHORN
CREST. LASTLY, IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE (45-70%) OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. LAWHORN/82
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YKM. YKM WILL LIKELY (60-80%) SEE VIS DROP
TO 5SM ROUND 12Z DUE TO BR WITH A BRIEF CHANCE OF SEEING VIS AS
LOW AS 3SM BRIEFLY BETWEEN 16-18Z. OTHERWISE, ALL TAF SITES
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BELOW 6KTS. 90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 28 43 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 31 43 31 47 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 29 48 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 28 49 29 45 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 29 46 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 28 44 28 43 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 23 43 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 28 48 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 28 48 27 50 / 10 10 0 0
DLS 33 49 33 50 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...90
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