143
FXUS66 KPDT 111148
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
348 AM PST WED FEB 11 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS AN UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTH PUSHING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OR. MEANWHILE, LOW STRATUS DECKS HAVE
ALSO DEVELOPED FROM LA PINE TO MADRAS IN CENTRAL OR.
TODAY AND THURSDAY: AN UPPER LOW SETUP OVER NORTHERN CA WILL
SPIN A WEAK PLUME OF MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSES INTO
SOUTHERN OR TODAY, RESULTING IN A CHANCE (15-30%) OF A DUSTING
OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
DESCHUTES/CROOK/GRANT COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY
WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS SHOW A TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE MAIN LOW CIRCULATION
SETTING UP OFFSHORE THE PACNW. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IT'S
JOURNEY SOUTH AND SETUP OFFSHORE CENTRAL CA BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED LOW BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON (CONFIDENCE 45-70%). THERE IS GROWING AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD THAT WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE AND WEAK
MOISTURE SUPPORT, MOUNTAIN AND LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. TO PROVIDE AN IDEA OF HOW MUCH SNOW THE
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE, THE 48-HR PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS
25-45% ACROSS THE CASCADE CREST, BLUES, EAGLE CAPS, AND ELKHORN
CREST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY, BY COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING
SNOW LEVELS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL OR AND THE
YAKIMA/KITTITAS VALLEYS, ALLOWING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO DEVELOP
IN THESE AREAS (CONFIDENCE 40-55%).
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND SETTING UP BETWEEN 40N AND 50N. HOWEVER,
DISAGREEMENT ARISES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THE REGION
WILL SEE. WHILE THE GENERAL TREND OF COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW IN THE LOWLANDS IS CONSISTENT AMONGST THE
DIFFERING CLUSTER SOLUTIONS, ABOUT HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FAVOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN BLUES AND THE
OR CASCADES, WHILE THE OTHER HALF FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE, 48-HR PROBABILITIES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES FROM THE NBM SHOW A
35-50% CHANCE IN THE OREGON CASCADES AND NORTHERN BLUES, BUT
CHANCES DROP TO 15-25% IN THE WA CASCADES. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE (35-45%) IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LAWHORN/82
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SITES PDT/RDM/BDN/ALW THROUGHOUT
THIS MORNING AS LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS OVER THESE AREAS.
INTERMITTENT DENSE FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED AT SITE PDT THROUGH 16Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL OTHER SITES, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AT THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, 12KTS
OR LESS, THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAWHORN/82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 29 48 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 32 48 34 49 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 30 49 32 49 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 29 47 29 44 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 29 49 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 28 45 30 42 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 24 51 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 28 51 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 28 49 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 33 51 35 49 / 0 0 0 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...82
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