448
FXUS66 KPDT 112247
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
247 PM PST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
- DRY, COOL WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THANKS
TO A TRANSIENT RIDGE.
- A COUPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS TO MOVE IN THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WETTER PATTERN SEEMS MORE FAVORABLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SMALL STRATUS DECK NEAR
CENTRAL OREGON AND CLOSE TO WALLA WALLA THAT HAS SINCE BEEN
DISSIPATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG, IF
ANY, WILL CONTINUE LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AS DAYTIME MIXING
CONTINUES TO WASH OUT THE REMAINING LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO CONTINUE GOING THROUGH
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE AREA,
BRINGING CHANCES OF DENSE FOG/FREEZING FOG RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING WIDE AERIAL COVERAGE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS (ESPECIALLY SHELTERED
AREAS) WILL SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.
THERE'S GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUR NEXT BIG SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER
WILL START ON FRIDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA DOWN TO JUST OFF THE SHORE OF CALIFORNIA. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST SYSTEM DRIVES DOWN TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING
ANY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION INTO OUR AREA. FORECAST
ENSEMBLES ARE AGREEING MORE THAT THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH NBM TRENDS CONTINUING TO GO DOWN. NBM
CURRENTLY SHOWS 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR SNOQUALMIE (DOWN FROM 5 TO 8
INCHES FROM LAST NIGHT), WITH MOST OF THE BLUES, WALLOWAS, AND
OREGON CASCADES GETTING UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATED SNOW
THROUGH SUNDAY (40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE). IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT 32% OF CLUSTERS WANT TO BRING MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A HEAVIER
SNOW PACK IN ONE PART OF THE OREGON CASCADES.
THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE DICEY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY THROUGH
MID-NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, GENERAL ENSEMBLES HAVE A GOOD GRIP THAT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER SOUTH, LEAVING IMPACTS MINIMAL
FOR OUR AREA. GENERALLY CONSENSUS IS THAT A SECOND LOW/WAVE WILL
DIVE DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOMETIME MONDAY AND BRING
LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IN THE AREA, BUT THE
OVERALL PROJECTED PATH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCLEAR. EURO
DETERMINISTIC LIKES TO BRING THE SECOND WAVE DOWN THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN INTO THE PACNW COASTLINE. THIS SOLUTION
WILL BRING WETTER WEATHER WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. MEANWHILE, GFS ENSEMBLES BRINGS A MORE DRY SOLUTION,
TRYING TO BRING THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR MORE OFF
SHORE, MINIMIZING THE IMPACTS COMPARED TO THE EURO. OVERALL, AN
ACTIVE PATTERN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK, BUT THE OVERALL
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
THE MAIN RISK FOR TERMINALS
AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS, WHICH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
HAS NOT DONE A GOOD JOB WITH FORECASTING. MODELS SCOURED OUT
THE STRATUS FAR TOO QUICKLY OVER BDN/RDM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THE CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO THE THE MVFR CATEGORY, THE STRATUS
REMAINS. ALSO AT DLS, SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE RETURN OF
FOG IN THE RIVER BASIN. THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK
YKM/ALW/PSC/PDT WILL SEE LONG DURATION PERIOD OF FOG TONIGHT
AND CHANCES EVEN BY HREF ARE UNDER 10%. THIS WILL BE A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE OTHER STRATUS PRONE LOCATIONS AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW WITH ANY FORECAST
MODELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 29 49 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 32 49 35 49 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 30 51 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 30 47 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 29 49 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 28 45 30 44 / 0 0 0 10
RDM 24 51 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 28 51 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 28 51 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 32 51 36 49 / 0 0 0 10
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...71
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