431
FXUS66 KPDT 251103
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
303 AM PST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WORKWEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THIS IS A RESULT OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-MORNING, OPENING THE
DOOR TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE AND INTO THE AREA.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL CREATE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
CASCADES AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS TO PROVIDE BREEZY WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS, AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BOTH TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL ENHANCE
THESE GRADIENTS BY ALLOWING FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AS TEMPERATURES WARM. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL PEAK EARLY TO MID-
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS WARMER BASIN TEMPERATURES, STRONGER
SURFACE PRESSURE WEST OF THE CASCADES, AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OFFSHORE PROVIDES A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH. THE MOST CONCERN RESIDES ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE KITTITAS VALLEY,
AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE NBM ADVERTISES A 50-70% CHANCE OF 35 MPH GUSTS TODAY ACROSS
THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS, EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES, AND SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, WITH A 50-80% CHANCE THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN ON THURSDAY. THERE A LOW
CHANCE OF THESE GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL (45 MPH GUSTS OR
GREATER) AS THE NBM SUGGESTS A 20-35% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE OVER
THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS AND KITTITAS VALLEY TODAY AND A 20-35%
CHANCE OVER THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN ON
THURSDAY.
THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON COASTS THAT HAS BEEN FUNNELING MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BEEN CUT OFF AND UPPER FLOW
HAS NOW SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
OF A COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN HIGH
PRESSURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, PEAKING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE
COLUMBIA BASIN, BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS, AND CENTRAL OREGON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EACH DAY, EVENTUALLY
APPROACHING THE LOW 60S ON FRIDAY. UNDER THIS REGIME, CONDITIONS
WILL STAY DRY AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN
20-30% ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNING SATURDAY, WITH 77% OF MEMBERS KEEPING
ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL OREGON. IN FACT, 66% OF
MEMBERS SHOWCASE RAIN AMOUNTS ONLY REACHING BETWEEN 0.02-0.04".
THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW, THAT BROKE
OFF AND MOVED FURTHER INTO THE PACIFIC THIS MORNING, REJOINING
THE FLOW AND APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTS EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW/TROUGHING FEATURE AND HOW
STRONG THE INCUMBENT RIDGE BECOMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK WILL DETERMINE RAIN AMOUNTS AND EXTENT ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER, HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AI
ENSEMBLES HAVE SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW/TROUGH FEATURE
THAT WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER RECENT MODEL RUNS. THUS, THERE STILL IS
UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC RAIN AMOUNTS AND HOW MUCH THEY WILL
EXTEND NORTH INTO NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON, BUT
CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL AS SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 5500-6500
FEET. THIS LOW/TROUGH FEATURE PASSES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE TO BRING ANOTHER DRY AND
WARM PERIOD TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE
LOW 60S TUESDAY AS THE NBM ADVERTISES A 70-90% CHANCE OF
OCCURRENCE ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON, 60-80% CHANCE THROUGH THE
BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS, AND A 35-45% CHANCE OVER THE TRI-CITIES
AREA. 75
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING MVFR AT
KBDN AND LIFR AT KALW DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS OF 2600 FEET AND
200 FEET RESPECTIVELY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS CEILINGS LIFT DUE TO INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GRADIENTS SETTING UP ACROSS THE CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS,
PROMOTING BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AT KPSC/KDLS/KPDT/KALW WITH
GUSTS OF AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND DROP TO BELOW 10 KTS AT ALL SITES UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. 75
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 29 53 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 33 53 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 31 55 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 27 51 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 30 55 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 28 47 31 47 / 10 10 10 10
RDM 21 52 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 26 51 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 24 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 31 52 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...75
AVIATION...75
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