786
FXUS66 KPDT 021707
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
907 AM PST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OREGON TODAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS (GUSTS 35-50 MPH) DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY.
-PERSISTENT PRECIP THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH BREEZY WINDS
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY TONIGHT
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONSHORE OF NORTHERN CA,
WHILE LIGHT RETURNS DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OR.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING: LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OR AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN OR THROUGH THIS MORNING
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACNW. BY THIS AFTERNOON,
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREAS AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE CA/NV BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION.
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITH LOW SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO 1
INCHES FOR MT BACHELOR, PAULINA PEAK, STRAWBERRY RANGE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS. BOTH REFS AND NBM SUGGESTS A 30-60% PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 0.5 INCH FOR THIS MORNING. WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 4.5KFT
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (AROUND 50S AND 60S), THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE CASE OF WET SNOW (50% CONFIDENCE). OTHERWISE,
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN OR WILL RESULT IN
RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.15 TO 0.3 INCHES DURING THESE MORNING
HOURS. IN ADDITION, THE NBM PROB OF 6-HR PRECIP FAVOR A 20-40%
PROB FOR 0.15 INCHES OR MORE. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH ITS LIGHT PRECIP
ACTIVITY.
LASTLY, SKY COVER WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD MINIMIZE VIEWING POTENTIAL FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE
TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 3AM-4AM PST FOR ITS TOTALITY. IT MAY START
OFF WITH FEW OR SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THEN, SO MIGHT BE THE BEST
CHANCE TO VIEW THE ECLIPSE BEFORE THE SKY BECOME MORE CLOUDY (>60%
CONFIDENCE).
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: ENSEMBLES AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
ALIGNMENT WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER TUESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO THE PACNW STARTING TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG
THE WA/OR CASCADES AND BLUE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT,
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE NBM PROB OF 24-HR PRECIP REVEALS A 50-80% PROB
FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50 INCH OR HIGHER, BUT 20-40% PROB FOR 1
INCH OR GREATER ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE LOWLANDS WILL RECEIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ABOUT 0.15-0.30 INCHES (30-50% PROB FOR 0.15
INCH OR MORE).
AS MENTIONED EARLY, LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CASCADES, BLUE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN OR. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 4.5KFT TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING TO 3-
4KFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE APPROACHES TO THE PACNW BY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS COULD RESULT IN SNOW TOTALS
RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 5 INCHES OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OR (35-55% CONFIDENCE). THE CREST OF THE WA/OR CASCADES
AND WALLOWA MOUNTAINS COULD GET HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING
5 INCHES (30-60% PROB). THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAVOR
OF MORE SNOWFALL FOR WA/OR CASCADES AS WELL. OVER 60% CLUSTER
MEMBERS AGREE WITH THIS TROUGHING PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DEPICTING TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER KITTITAS VALLEY TO THE COLUMBIA BASIN. BREEZY WINDS
(GUSTS 35-50 MPH) WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
(50-70% CONFIDENCE) WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CASCADE
PEAKS/RIDGES AND RIDGES IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK: MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THAT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING PERSISTENT LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE WA/OR CASCADE CRESTS, NORTHERN
BLUES, AND EAGLE CAPS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL THEN
BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 20-40% PRECIP CHANCES OVER
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS, BUT LOWER (10-20%) FOR THE LOWLANDS. THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY (30-50 MPH) OVER THE RIDGES AT THE WA
CASCADES AND KITTITAS VALLEY DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (30-
60% PROB FOR 24-HR MAX GUST). THE REMAINING LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
BREEZY WINDS (15-25 MPH) (50% CONFIDENCE).
FEASTER/97
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KRDM/KBDN ARE CURRENTLY MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS OF 1500-2500 FT
AND WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 20Z BEFORE CLEARING TO VFR. BDN IS
ALSO SEEING VIS AT 6SM DUE TO BR.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 6KTS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 56 36 60 42 / 10 0 0 50
ALW 55 40 60 44 / 0 0 0 70
PSC 60 36 62 44 / 0 0 0 40
YKM 58 34 58 38 / 0 0 0 50
HRI 60 36 62 44 / 0 0 0 40
ELN 55 34 52 36 / 0 0 10 50
RDM 55 30 58 36 / 30 0 0 20
LGD 57 34 59 41 / 40 0 0 60
GCD 53 33 57 40 / 80 0 0 30
DLS 61 40 57 44 / 0 0 30 80
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
UPDATE...88
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...90
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