727
FXUS66 KPDT 201752
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1052 AM PDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. CASCADE RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY
2. ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY
3. A SYSTEM WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
SATURDAY WITH MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION CONTINUING
DISCUSSION...ISSUED 313 AM PDT FRI MAR 20 2026
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW RETURNS OVER THE WA CASCADES AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER REMAIN OVER THE AREA. CURRENT
GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE LAST HOUR THESE RETURNS HAVE
ONLY PUT DOWN BETWEEN 0.10-0.12 INCHES OF RAIN. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TODAY (FRIDAY) WITH RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS NEARING 0.4-0.8 INCHES THROUGH 5 AM (70-90%
CONFIDENCE). SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP STEADILY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTTOMING OUT AT AROUND 2500 FEET. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BE BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10-0.30 INCHES ABOVE 4000 FEET (70-90%
CONFIDENCE).
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER THE REGION. THIS IS
WHAT IS BRINGING THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. IN HOUSE
COMPARISONS FOR TEMPERATURES SHOWS THAT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
REMAIN ANYWHERE BETWEEN 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH EVEN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MODELS
SHOW THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A PATTERN CHANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION WITH 90-100% OF THE NBM RAW
ENSEMBLES IN AGREEMENT. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH AGAIN 90-100% OF THE RAW
ENSEMBLES IN AGREEMENT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE IN FIRM AGREEMENT WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
ZONAL FLOW. NBM SHOWS SNOW LEVELS TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGE. MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH VERY LIGHT (0.01-0.03 INCHES) SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED (80-90% CONFIDENCE) ALONG THE CRESTS OF THE CASCADES
WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WILL SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. MODELS SHOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
PRIMARILY ALONG THE OR CASCADES AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES
AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.10
INCHES (60-80% CONFIDENCE). TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE BY NEARLY
20 DEGREES SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S IN THE
BASIN AND MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE (70-80% CONFIDENCE).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE MOSTLY 15-25 KFT THROUGH
AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOUNTAIN WAVES MAY INDUCE PERIODIC BKN060 TO
BKN080 DECKS AT DLS/YKM.
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING LOW (10-30 PERCENT)
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR DLS/YKM/RDM/BDN/PSC AND MEDIUM-HIGH
(30-70 PERCENT) CHANCES AT PDT/ALW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
12Z HREF SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS, HIGHEST
CHANCES AT PDT/ALW, BUT HAVE NOT ADVERTISED IN THE 18Z TAFS YET
DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL
SITES. 86
FIRE WEATHER
AN SPS IS OUT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OCHOCO-
JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL OR. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS LEAD TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (80-90% CONFIDENCE)FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OR AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY, DIURNAL
WINDS HAVE THE CAPABILITIES OF REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTS
(50-70% CONFIDENCE). THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
ELEVATED WINDS CAN LEAD TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD. 90
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 75 46 58 31 / 10 40 40 0
ALW 74 48 59 35 / 10 50 60 0
PSC 76 47 64 34 / 10 30 20 0
YKM 71 41 59 30 / 30 20 0 0
HRI 76 48 63 32 / 10 30 20 0
ELN 60 37 51 29 / 50 20 0 0
RDM 76 43 58 24 / 0 10 10 0
LGD 78 45 56 29 / 0 30 70 10
GCD 77 46 56 29 / 0 10 50 0
DLS 70 46 60 34 / 20 30 10 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...90
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