233
FXUS66 KPDT 091706
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1006 AM PDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY HIGHLAND AND
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN OREGON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A DRY AND MILD SETUP CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S. SOME OF THE WARMER AREAS WILL AGAIN BE THE GRANDE
RONDE, YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS, CENTRAL OREGON AND THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE TEMPERATURES NEARING OR SURPASSING THE 70
DEGREE THRESHOLD WILL BE LIKELY BASED ON THE THE BULK OF THE NBM
MAXT MEMBERS. AREAS FROM YAKIMA TO TOPPENISH AND SUNNYSIDE HAVE
A 60 TO 70% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
LIKEWISE THE TRI-CITIES IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOW 70S AT
80% CHANCES.
IN ADDITION TO THE WARM CONDITIONS A GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS RISK
OUTLOOK SHIFTS INLAND AND NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS
MAXIMIZING ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, INCREASING MUCAPES AND SBCAPES OF AN AVERAGE OF 250
J/KG IS LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE TO THE CENTRAL OREGON AREAS
LATE IN THE DAY, AND QUICKLY DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING. IN ADDITION THE SHEAR IS THERE FOR BRIEF ORGANIZATION,
AT 200-300 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH. AS A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
MOVES INLAND, FRIDAY'S MUCAPES INCREASE AND EXPAND ACROSS A
LARGER AREAS INCLUDING THE JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS, AS HREF 4-HOUR BASED THUNDERSTORMS PROBABILITIES RAMP
UP FROM 20 TO 50% BETWEEN ABOUT 1 AND 6 PM IN THESE AREAS. BY
SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 95% AND 70% CHANCES RESPECTIVELY
FOR WETTING RAINS (ONE TENTH OF AND INCH OR MORE) ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE OREGON CASCADES, AND THE OCHOCO/JOHNDAY
HIGHLANDS WITH A 50% CHANCE EXTENDING ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AS FAR NORTH AS THE TOLLGATE AREA. BY SUNDAY MORNING,THE 48 HOUR
BASED TOTAL MEAN RAINFALLS FROM THE NBM ARE RIGHT ABOUT 0.4 TO
0.5 INCHES ACROSS THESE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLAND AREAS, AND AT
LEAST WETTING RAINS OVER THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. BY SUNDAY THESE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE ONCE AGAIN MINIMAL (SUB 10%)
OVER THE BROADER AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING 15-20% CHANCES
ARE FORECAST BASED ON NBM ENSEMBLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUE
MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL OR THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WHICH MAY IMPACT SITES RDM/BDN THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUPING FOR SITES RDM/BDN FOR THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, 12KTS OR
LESS, AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAWHORN/82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 70 42 66 46 / 0 0 30 30
ALW 70 45 67 49 / 0 0 20 30
PSC 74 42 71 48 / 0 0 10 30
YKM 70 43 70 47 / 0 0 10 20
HRI 72 41 69 47 / 0 0 10 30
ELN 67 40 67 44 / 0 0 10 20
RDM 70 39 67 40 / 20 30 60 60
LGD 69 41 68 44 / 0 0 40 50
GCD 70 45 64 43 / 10 10 70 60
DLS 74 48 72 51 / 0 10 10 40
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...71
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