610
FXUS66 KPDT 251137
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY
IN EFFECT.
- CONDITIONS TREND DRIER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN THE CASCADE REGION. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. WHILE LOCAL RADAR SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION, RADARS OUT OF
PDX AND SEA ARE PICKING UP A LINE OF PRECIPITATION OUT IN THE
PACIFIC THAT'S ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GFS
AND EURO DETERMINISTIC MODELS ADVERTISE A TROUGH IN THE SAME
AREA THAT WILL PROPAGATE TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY
WILL SUCCUMB TO THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM, INTRODUCING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. STRONG WIND GUSTS ABOVE WIND CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL OREGON THROUGH THE SIMCOE HIGHLANDS MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE LATER EVENING HOURS.
GOING THROUGH MONDAY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS (70 TO 90
PERCENT CHANCE). THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 3 TO 7 PM WITH THE GREATEST HEAT PRESENT.
MOST LIKELY PLACE TO SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG
THE NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES, AND THE
WALLOWA'S. PAINTBALLS ON HREF FOR >40 DBZ & MUCAPE >50 J/KG
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AT AROUND 3 PM THROUGH 11 PM.
ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT CONVECTION CHANCES TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE
AFTER SUNSET.
THE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING UP TO 0.25" TO 0.50" ACROSS
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS (60-80% CHANCE) WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
ANTICIPATED TO SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH (60-80% CHANCE)
THROUGH TODAY. ALOFT, THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
AND A SHORT-LIVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, THOUGH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH WILL STILL LARGELY INFLUENCE THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA, THAT CHANCES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH AN EMBEDDED COLD FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(ACCORDING TO THE NBM) ADVERTISE TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
GREATER THAN TODAY. CHANCES OF A STORM PRODUCING INCREASE 20 TO
30 PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR TRENDS IN
WIND AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S (50-70% CHANCE), BRINGING MINOR
HEATRISK WITH A VALUE OF "1" AREA WIDE, EFFECTING THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE PARTS OF THE POPULATION THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT
RISKS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24-HOURS. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE AREA LATER TODAY THAT WILL BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 20-35 KNOTS THAT WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS WELL AS INCREASE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS IN THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE (5
TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE) THAT SOME MODERATE DEVELOPING SHOWERS WILL
TEMPORARY BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 82 43 62 45 / 0 80 30 50
ALW 84 47 62 48 / 0 60 30 50
PSC 86 45 68 46 / 0 60 0 20
YKM 78 44 69 47 / 0 20 0 10
HRI 83 44 66 46 / 10 70 10 30
ELN 73 40 62 43 / 0 30 10 10
RDM 80 34 59 35 / 0 20 30 30
LGD 86 41 55 42 / 10 60 70 80
GCD 87 39 56 38 / 0 80 70 70
DLS 76 46 69 49 / 0 20 10 20
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR WAZ027-521.
OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ510-511.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...95
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