331
FXUS66 KPDT 102136
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
236 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MAJOR HEATRISK GOING INTO MID NEXT-WEEK POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHT CHANCES (10-20%) OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE BLUE MOUNTAINS MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE AND RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW OUR EXPECTED DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SITUATED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL ALLOW TO KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES STEADY OVER THE WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATED AREAS.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ONCOMING TROUGH
WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND
KITTITAS/ELLENSBURG REGION (40-70% CHANCE) THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH JUST OFF
THE COAST WILL RETRACT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING, ALLOWING WINDS TO NOT BE AS BREEZY AS IT WILL
BE PREVIOUSLY (70-80% CHANCE).
AFTER THE TROUGH RETRACTS, A RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER MUCH OF
THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
INFLUENCE THE PATTERN MORE. THIS WILL ACTUALLY ALLOW MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO TO WRAP AROUND INTO THE REGION BY LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING 10-20% CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCLEAR GOING
THROUGH MID NEXT-WEEK, WITH MODELS STRUGGLING TO DETERMINE THE
STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE RIDGE ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE
LOWER-48 AND A SHORTWAVE STILL SITUATED OFF THE COAST STILL
BRINGING MOSTLY SOUTHERN WIND FLOW ALOFT. A STRONGER/CLOSER
RIDGE DOMINATED SET-UP WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE
100 DEGREES IN PLACES OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN (10-30% CHANCE)
WHILE A MORE TROUGH INFLUENCED PATTERN WOULD ALLOW A MORE
'COOLER' SET-UP. REGARDLESS, METEOGRAMS FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WILL
INITIATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THO TO THE EXTENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AS MENTIONED EARLIER. NOTABLY, WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF MODERATE
HEATRISK WITH A >60% CHANCE DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD 30-50% CHANCES ON FRIDAY. MAJOR HEATRISK CHANCES
GO UP TO 35% IN MOST PLACES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS REACHING 45% CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. WILL BE A
SET-UP TO PAY ATTENTION TO SEE IF HEATRISK WILL PLAY AN ISSUE
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS THAT
MODERATE HEATRISK WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AT
DLS, PDT, RDM, BDN WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 20 KTS AT PDT, RDM AND BDN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND 20 TO 25 KTS AT DLS. ALL OTHER SITES WILL BE 10 KTS
OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 56 87 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 62 90 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 60 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 57 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 60 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 54 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 47 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 55 95 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 54 97 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 59 85 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR ORZ050.
DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...77
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