560
FXUS66 KPDT 301037
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
337 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
2. INSTABILITY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
3. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RHS RETURN SATURDAY
*FIRE WEATHER WATCH*
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. GROUND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME SMOKE OVER THE REGION BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
IMPACT VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, AIR QUALITY IS STILL POOR AND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COST AND THE RIDGE SITTING IN THE FOUR
CORNERS HAS THE REGION WEDGED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRY AIR AND CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS
VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH
HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20%. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSTABILITY TO RETURN TO THE REGION AGAIN TODAY. WHILE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW, INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE ACTIVE BEHAVIOR AROUND
FIRES ALREADY ON THE LANDSCAPE. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG, LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM, LI OF -2 AND
BULK SHEAR OF 34 KNOTS. THIS SHOW CLEARLY THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
UNSTABLE AND CUMULUS FIELDS WILL LIKELY BUILD. WITH THIS, ONE CAN
ALSO NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW (>10%) WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE INSTABIITY IS HIGH (70-90%).
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF OREGON.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE NEXT DAY OF CONCERN IN THE PERIOD. MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE AND AHEAD OF IT
IS A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. NBM RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW 50-70% PROBABILITIES OF
WIND ADVISORY (>45 MPH) CRITERIA BEING MET THROUGH THE KITTITAS
VALLEY, SIMCOE HIGHLANDS, THE GORGE AND THE COLUMBIA BASIN. THE
WINDS COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS HAS WILL ELEVATE THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL HOVER
IN THE UPPER 20% TO LOW 30% WITH SOME ARES SEEING A HIGH AS 35%
(70- 80% CONFIDENCE). THE LOW RHS AND ELEVATED WINDS COULD LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY, THEREFORE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT AT BDN
WHERE LOW CIGS HAVE THEM AT MVFR. EXPECT THE LOW CIGS TO CLEAR BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT DLS AFTER 1800 WITH RDM/BDN SEEING
GUSTS AFTER 22Z. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW
RHS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. SATURDAY IS THE NEXT MAJOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS DAY WITH INCOMING WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH OR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
MPH. NBM RAW ENSEMBLES SHOW A 50-60% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
OF WINDS EXCEEDING CRITERIA. DAYTIME RHS WILL REMAIN LOW IN THE
UPPER 20% TO LOW 30%. THE WINDS COULD OVERRIDE THE RHS CREATING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OR AND WA AND
FOR THE CANYON GRASSLANDS OF WALLOWA COUNTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 87 54 92 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALW 90 60 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
PSC 92 56 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 91 58 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 90 58 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 86 56 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 88 48 94 53 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 92 55 98 59 / 0 0 0 0
GCD 94 55 100 58 / 0 0 0 0
DLS 85 59 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WAZ691-693.
OR...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ041-049-050-502-
503-505-506-509>511.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ691-693.
DISCUSSION...90
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...90
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