006
FXUS66 KPDT 071111
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
411 AM PDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE REGION
- BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS AND LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN TODAY
- DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A POTENTIAL RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND (CONFIDENCE 30-40%)
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SWINGING INTO ID, WITH CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE, REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM LA GRANDE DUE NORTH INTO
THE WA COLUMBIA BASIN AND LIGHTER SHOWERS OVER WALLOWA COUNTY.
TODAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO
DIMINISH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS WALLOWA COUNTY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF RENEWAL IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
A SECONDARY LOW QUICKLY SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOSTLY BE UNDER A
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT THAT'LL BECOME ZONAL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY (CONFIDENCE
65-80%). THURSDAY, BREEZY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 15-25MPH WITH STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE LOW BUT ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND CASCADE GAPS DURING
THIS TIME, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
THURSDAY (CONFIDENCE 55-75%).
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PASSING OVER THE PACNW, WITH OVER 80%
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (FROM ECMWF, GFS, CANADIAN) FAVORING
SATURDAY FOR LIGHT RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID,
DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE TROUGH EXIT IS GROWING, WITH 22%
OF MEMBERS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
WHEREAS 66% OF MEMBERS FAVOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE (40-55%) IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20-25%) IN TIMING AND
EXTENT. OTHERWISE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE (50-60%) THAT
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. LAWHORN/82
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW (25%) IN MVFR/VSBY
CIG DEVELOPING AT SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT SITES DLS/PDT AFTER 17Z< THEN BECOMING
LIGHT IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LAWHORN/82
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 71 42 75 47 / 10 0 0 0
ALW 73 49 77 52 / 20 0 0 0
PSC 76 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
YKM 76 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
HRI 74 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
ELN 71 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
RDM 68 38 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
LGD 68 42 74 45 / 20 10 0 0
GCD 67 41 76 46 / 10 0 0 0
DLS 74 51 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
OR...NONE.
DISCUSSION...82
AVIATION...82
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