695
FXUS61 KPHI 080249
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 PM EST THU NOV 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA DURING MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
IN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERALL, THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
DRIER AND COOLER AIR SLATED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
TONIGHT'S TEMPS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL (STILL ABOVE
HOWEVER) WITH READINGS DROPPING TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND LOW/MID 40S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. WINDS WILL DECEASE
BACK TO AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.
FOR FRIDAY, THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE
NEWLY ARRIVE AIRMASS IS DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER, BUT STILL A GOOD DEAL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. UNDER
SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW, HIGH WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE FAR N/W AND MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS S/E AREAS. WINDS WILL BE
WEST, FOR THE MOST PART, AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A COUPLE GUSTS TO
20 MPH. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST,
LENDING TO A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT. BREEZY NNW WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S.
AS WE GO THROUGH SATURDAY, A RIDGE ALOFT CRESTS OVER OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER
OUR AREA THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT
OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A VERY DRY AIR
MASS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE
20S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHTER OUT OF THE NNW AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
MPH. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FOR SATURDAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW.
AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LIGHT) STARTS TO TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT NIGHT, THE SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO
INCREASE SOME ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE MAIN
ARRIVAL OF INCREASING LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER LOOKS DELAYED
UNTIL DURING SUNDAY. MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO
INCREASE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUMMARY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST; SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN IS PROBABLE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST TO START SUNDAY. AS THIS IS OCCURS,
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR EVEN A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT
ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN SLIDE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY ON MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT GOES MORE
ZONAL LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OFFSHORE
SUNDAY AND THIS ASSISTS IN MORE OF A RETURN FLOW. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW TRACKS
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY THEN IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY
THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS FORECAST
TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA MONDAY.
AT LEAST SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE RAFAEL
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY GET DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER
THESE DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN GIVEN SPLIT GUIDANCE ON WHERE THE
HURRICANE ACTUALLY TRACKS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE OUR REGION. AS OF NOW,
0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE AREA. SHOWERS LOOK TO START
DURING MOSTLY THE SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT,
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT, AN UPPER-LEVEL JET APPROACHING
WITH SOME FORCING AND WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET AIDING IN STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION (POPS INCREASE TO THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE).
INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MINIMAL AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE
RECOVERING FROM THE INITIALLY RATHER DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AND THEREFORE NO THUNDER INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT SUNDAY, THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY WITH A
LAG IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT MAY TRY TO GO MORE ZONAL
FOR A TIME HOWEVER A TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. SOME RIDGING ALOFT THEN ARRIVES FROM THE WEST INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR AREA
DURING THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH ITS CENTER MAY BECOME MORE SHIFTED TO OUR
NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO
NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE SOME COOLING TAKES
PLACE, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY FAVORING A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR/SKC. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST INCREASING BY
MID-MORNING TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20- 25 KNOTS FRIDAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT, THEN
NORTHERLY AND LIGHTER ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...VFR. NNW WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVERNIGHT AND BE MOSTLY
BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. ON
FRIDAY, THE WINDS WILL SWITCH BACK MORE WESTERLY. NO SCA FLAGS
WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE SPEEDS REMAINING LIMITED. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES. NNW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
EXPECTED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A MAINLY BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NNW WINDS MAY GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY, DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE VERY DRY FUELS IN
PLACE, THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY HAVE
WARRANTED A RED FLAG WARNING.
FOR SATURDAY, AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
NNW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER, AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 15 MPH. THOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHTER, WE STILL HAVE CONCERNS
FOR THE SPREAD OF FIRES ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN A WETTING RAIN LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW BURN RESTRICTIONS AND CHECK WITH YOUR STATE
AND LOCAL FIRE OFFICIALS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEAR RECORD TERRITORY TODAY IN SOME SPOTS.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 7TH:
SITE RECORD / YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE)..........74 / 1938
AC AIRPORT (ACY).........81 / 2022
AC MARINA (55N)..........80 / 2022
GEORGETOWN (GED..........83 / 2022
MOUNT POCONO (MPO).......71 / 2020
PHILADELPHIA (PHL).......79 / 2022
READING (RDG)............76 / 2022
TRENTON (TTN)............76 / 2022
WILMINGTON (ILG).........80 / 2022
RECORD STRETCH (CONSECUTIVE DAYS) WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION:
CURRENT
SITE RECORD RECORD DATES THRU 11/6
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 34 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 35 DAYS
AC MARINA (55N) 39 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 36 DAYS
GEORGETOWN (GED) 34 DAYS OCT-NOV 2001 40 DAYS
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 29 DAYS OCT-NOV 1874 39 DAYS
TRENTON (TTN) 38 DAYS APR-MAY 1903 39 DAYS
WILMINGTON (ILG) 34 DAYS JAN-FEB 1909 39 DAYS
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/MJL
NEAR TERM...AKL/OHARA
SHORT TERM...GORSE/MJL
LONG TERM...GORSE/MJL
AVIATION...AKL/MJL/OHARA
MARINE...AKL/MJL/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...WFO PHI
CLIMATE...WFO PHI
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