087
FXUS61 KPHI 082008
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS IN DURING SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEAR TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNNY ON
SATURDAY. IT'LL BE SEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT AND NOTICEABLY
COLDER SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY). LOWS TONIGHT WILL FAVOR
THE LOW 40S FOR THE METRO/SUBURBAN AREAS AND 30S ELSEWHERE.
TOMORROW, INSTEAD OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S LIKE
TODAY, READINGS WILL FAVOR THE 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT AND TURN MORE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AT AROUND 10 MPH.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AREA WILL LIE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST US ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURING ON MONDAY.
WITH THIS BEING SAID, ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, AN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT LOOKS TO OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SKIES BECOME MORE CLOUD-
FILLED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
BELIEVE IT OR NOT, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN CERTAINLY LOOK PLAUSIBLE AS
SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS
WILL BRING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 90% IN MOST AREAS. AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
HANG UP ALONG THE COAST, BUT OVERALL SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL, WE ARE EXPECTING
ROUGHLY 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN AREAWIDE. ALTHOUGH, THIS CERTAINLY
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, IT WILL
DEFINITELY BE APPRECIABLE CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OVER THE
LAST 2 MONTHS.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON
MONDAY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A MUCH MILDER NIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH
LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
THEN PROGGED TO APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WHILE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND/OR CUTTING OFF BY FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN ARRIVES
WITH POSSIBLE COAST LOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SO FOR RIGHT NOW, EXPECT DRY AND MOSTLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS PLAYS A BIG
FACTOR ON WHAT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK. ALL MAJOR GLOBAL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL POSSIBLY BE SOME SORT OF COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO, DEVELOPING A STRONG COASTAL LOW
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH
THIS SCENARIO, BUT BOTH DO INCLUDE SOME SORT OF CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. IT IS WORTH MONITORING NONETHELESS, AS THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINY WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... VFR. CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS EVENING THEN AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFID.
SATURDAY... VFR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY, WITH SUB-VFR
LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
A SCA FLAG WILL GO UP THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH ACROSS THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS
BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. THE SEAS ACROSS DELAWARE BAY WILL
BECOME CHOPPY OVERNIGHT. FAIR WEATHER. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE SATURDAY,
SO THE SCA FLAG WILL BE DOWN FOR THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY BEGINNING
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS
AND SEAS AROUND 4-5 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL COME DOWN AT 6PM.
FOR SATURDAY, A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHTER COMPARED TO FRIDAY,
THE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND THUS AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FIRE SPREAD REMAINS. AN SPS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS
EVENING AFTER THE RED FLAG WARNING COMES DOWN.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN A WETTING RAIN (0.25-0.50
INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAST) LATER SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT,
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW BURN RESTRICTIONS AND CHECK WITH YOUR STATE
AND LOCAL FIRE OFFICIALS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
CLIMATE
RECORD STRETCH (CONSECUTIVE DAYS) WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION:
CURRENT
SITE RECORD RECORD DATES THRU 11/7
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 34 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 36 DAYS
AC MARINA (55N) 39 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 37 DAYS
GEORGETOWN (GED) 34 DAYS OCT-NOV 2001 41 DAYS
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 29 DAYS OCT-NOV 1874 40 DAYS
TRENTON (TTN) 38 DAYS APR-MAY 1903 40 DAYS
WILMINGTON (ILG) 34 DAYS JAN-FEB 1909 40 DAYS
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/OHARA
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/GORSE
LONG TERM...DESILVA/GORSE
AVIATION...DESILVA/GORSE/OHARA
MARINE...DESILVA/GORSE/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF
CLIMATE...STAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page