973
FXUS61 KPHI 090735
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST TODAY
AND WILL BE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER NEW JERSEY LATE
TONIGHT.
A TIGHT NORTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
RESULTS IN BRISK 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST,
AND THEN WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM LATE TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH
OVERHEAD.
UNDER SUNNY SKIES, SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, EXCEPT FOR PHILADELPHIA AND ALONG THE
COASTS, WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. BELIEVE IT OR
NOT, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED AS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 90% IN MOST AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY HANG UP ALONG
THE COAST, BUT OVERALL SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL, WE ARE EXPECTING ROUGHLY 0.25-0.50
INCHES OF RAIN AREAWIDE. ALTHOUGH, THIS CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO BREAK THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, IT WILL DEFINITELY BE
APPRECIABLE CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST 2 MONTHS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS BY WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AS IT MOVES INTO ATLANTIC CANADA AND THIS WILL DRAG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE,
HOWEVER, SO NO PRECIP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S ON
MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY, A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. AT THE VERY LEAST,
THIS SHOULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN/SHOWERS BY AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY HINGING ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW COASTAL LOW NEAR OR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THE GFS HAD BEEN FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BUT HAS TRENDED
WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THE NEW 0Z RUN MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF. THIS WEAKER AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MAJORITY OF (BUT NOT ALL) GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS. IF A
STRONGER SECONDARY LOW STILL DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
COAST, THIS COULD BRING A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE WE WOULD JUST GET SOME PASSING SHOWERS. IN OTHER WORDS,
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS POINT AS THIS IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR/SKC. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT,
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER 18Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. LGT/VRB TO CALM WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY, WITH SUB-VFR
LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO RAIN AND A LOWERING STRATUS DECK.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL RESULT
IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KT WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS ALONG
WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT, THOUGH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED BY A FEW HOURS. THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM, AND THE SCA ON DELAWARE BAY WILL EXPIRE
AT 10 AM.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 4-5 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
A DRY AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, BUT RH VALUES WILL AVERAGE 45 TO 55 PERCENT
DURING THAT TIME. BY THIS AFTERNOON, MINRH VALUES WILL BE 20 TO 30
PERCENT, AND NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
TODAY.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN A WETTING RAIN (0.25-0.50
INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAST) LATER SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT,
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD STRETCH (CONSECUTIVE DAYS) WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION:
CURRENT
SITE RECORD RECORD DATES THRU 11/8
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 34 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 37 DAYS
AC MARINA (55N) 39 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 38 DAYS
GEORGETOWN (GED) 34 DAYS OCT-NOV 2001 42 DAYS
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 29 DAYS OCT-NOV 1874 41 DAYS
TRENTON (TTN) 38 DAYS APR-MAY 1903 41 DAYS
WILMINGTON (ILG) 34 DAYS JAN-FEB 1909 41 DAYS
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...MPS/OHARA
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
LONG TERM...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MPS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
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