079
FXUS61 KPHI 091138
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FORECAST RUNNING ON TRACK. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED, BUT SHOULD
PICK UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST
TODAY AND WILL BE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL THEN BE OVER NEW
JERSEY LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH AROUND NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS
EAST, AND THEN WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.
UNDER SUNNY SKIES, SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
PLACE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, EXCEPT FOR PHILADELPHIA AND
ALONG THE COASTS, WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED AS
SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RAFAEL OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THIS WILL BRING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION BEGINNING
LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POPS AROUND 90% IN MOST
AREAS. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY,
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY HANG UP ALONG THE COAST, BUT OVERALL
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF TOTAL
RAINFALL, WE ARE EXPECTING ROUGHLY 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN
AREAWIDE. ALTHOUGH, THIS CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, IT WILL DEFINITELY BE
APPRECIABLE CONSIDERING HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OVER THE LAST 2
MONTHS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS BY WELL TO OUR NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO ATLANTIC CANADA AND THIS WILL DRAG
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER, SO NO PRECIP.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD, WE ARE LOOKING AT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY WITH MID 60S TO LOW
70S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
BY THURSDAY, A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. AT THE
VERY LEAST, THIS SHOULD BRING SOME MORE RAIN/SHOWERS BY AROUND
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY HINGING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW COASTAL LOW NEAR
OR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS HAD BEEN FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS BUT HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE NEW 0Z RUN MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THIS WEAKER AND
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF
(BUT NOT ALL) GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS. IF A STRONGER
SECONDARY LOW STILL DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COAST,
THIS COULD BRING A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE
WE WOULD JUST GET SOME PASSING SHOWERS. IN OTHER WORDS, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY
LOW AT THIS POINT AS THIS IS STILL ALMOST A WEEK OUT. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR/SKC. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT,
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER 18Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. LGT/VRB TO CALM WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY, WITH SUB-VFR
LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO RAIN AND A LOWERING STRATUS DECK.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MARINE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT WINDS WITH 25 TO 30 KT WIND GUSTS ON THE
WATERS ALONG WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, THOUGH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED BY A FEW
HOURS. THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM, AND THE SCA ON
DELAWARE BAY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. N WINDS 10 TO 15
KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 4-5 FEET.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
A DRY AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING, GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, BUT RH VALUES WILL AVERAGE 45 TO 55 PERCENT
DURING THAT TIME. BY THIS AFTERNOON, MINRH VALUES WILL BE 20 TO 30
PERCENT, AND NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
TODAY.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN A WETTING RAIN (0.25-0.50
INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAST) LATER SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT,
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD STRETCH (CONSECUTIVE DAYS) WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION:
CURRENT
SITE RECORD RECORD DATES THRU 11/8
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 34 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 37 DAYS
AC MARINA (55N) 39 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 38 DAYS
GEORGETOWN (GED) 34 DAYS OCT-NOV 2001 42 DAYS
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 29 DAYS OCT-NOV 1874 41 DAYS
TRENTON (TTN) 38 DAYS APR-MAY 1903 41 DAYS
WILMINGTON (ILG) 34 DAYS JAN-FEB 1909 41 DAYS
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...MPS/OHARA
SHORT TERM...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
LONG TERM...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MPS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
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