044
FXUS61 KPHI 100649
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
149 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
WILL START TO PUSH EASTWARD OUT TO SEA AS WE GET INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE
IS CURRENTLY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS JUST STARTING TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA AND EXPECT THIS TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER AS WE GO THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER, UNTIL
SOME SHOWERS START PUSHING INTO OUR EASTERN PA ZONES TOWARDS THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER A CHILLY START,
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO
THE LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING AND THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE OUR FIRST "WETTING RAIN" SINCE
THE END OF SEPTEMBER SO IT IS MUCH NEEDED! THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL
MODERATE AT TIMES AS WE GET TOWARDS THE MID TO LATE EVENING. THE
STEADIER RAIN SHOULD THEN START TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AS WE GO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WE WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR
AND THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WE GET TOWARDS SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. SO THIS MEANS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO AT LEAST BE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WE ARE GENERALLY STILL EXPECTING A QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM WITH EVEN SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE QUITE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME
40S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NW NJ.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY TRANQUIL ASIDE FOR A FEW
COLD FRONTS THAT MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE
ACCOMPANIED WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
AS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSES, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY HANG UP ALONG
THE COAST IN THE MORNING, BUT OVERALL STILL LOOKING LIKE MONDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR ALL AREAS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ONE MORE MILD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT A TOTALLY EFFICIENT NIGHT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER, WITH SOME DRIER AIR WORKING ITS
WAY BACK INTO THE REGION, LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED, SO THIS FRONT
WILL BE DRY AS IT PASSES, RESULTING IN A DRY TUESDAY. BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR,
SO BOTH DEW POINTS AND TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON TUESDAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES FOR TUESDAY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR
THIS PERIOD.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH A
WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES, THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND FOR SOME MORE RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THURSDAY WITH UP TO A 40% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS CONSIDERABLY BACKED OFF
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER FOR THE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, SO IT NOW APPEARS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIMPLY BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK. SO, WITH THIS SOLUTION DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND
LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST 5-
10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE, THEN BEGIN TO GUST 15-20 KNOTS LATER IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING AS RAIN QUICKLY MOVES IN WEST TO EAST AND LIKELY DOWN TO IFR
FOR MOST SITES BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
TRANQUIL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT S/SW WINDS TO INCREASE AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS OFFSHORE OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
STARTING 1 PM SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVISORY STARTS AT 6 PM ON DELAWARE BAY. GENERALLY EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS WITH EVEN A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS AROUND
5 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
EVEN THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA MAY HAVE RH VALUES NEAR 35 PERCENT FOR FEW HOURS
AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AROUND 20 MPH,
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED
STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RESULT IN A WETTING RAIN (0.25-0.50
INCHES CURRENTLY FORECAST) LATER SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT,
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD STRETCH (CONSECUTIVE DAYS) WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION:
CURRENT
SITE RECORD RECORD DATES THRU 11/8
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 34 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 37 DAYS
AC MARINA (55N) 39 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 38 DAYS
GEORGETOWN (GED) 34 DAYS OCT-NOV 2001 42 DAYS
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 29 DAYS OCT-NOV 1874 41 DAYS
TRENTON (TTN) 38 DAYS APR-MAY 1903 41 DAYS
WILMINGTON (ILG) 34 DAYS JAN-FEB 1909 41 DAYS
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...DESILVA
LONG TERM...DESILVA
AVIATION...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page