091
FXUS61 KPHI 110640
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
140 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF A WARM FRONT THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
140 AM...RAIN, ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH ONTARIO, IS ONGOING AT THE MOMENT BUT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST OF THIS RAIN TO START TO TAPER OFF WEST
TO EAST AS WE GET INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. WE STILL EXPECT BY
THIS TIME THAT A GENERAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH WILL HAVE FALLEN
WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY, IF NOT RISE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SYSTEM'S WARM
SECTOR.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY MONDAY, ANY LINGERING RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR
THE COAST WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS INITIAL
FRONT WON'T BE TOO STRONG IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BUT
WILL START TO BRING DOWN THE DEW POINTS AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH WITH THE DAY GENERALLY FEATURING
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
THROUGH ALOFT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE
SO WINDS SHOULD PICK UP OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NW AFTER INITIALLY
DIMINISHING SOME IN THE EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS BY THE
OVERNIGHT OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. EVEN
THOUGH THIS SECONDARY FRONT WILL BE STRONGER IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST, IT WILL LACK MOISTURE SO NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED. EXPECT LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 40S
WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE POCONO PLATEAU.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES LOWER THAN MONDAY'S HIGHS, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO
NEAR 60. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIR, DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CONSEQUENTLY, THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW).
A NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION, HELPING USHER IN THE COLD AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH MID 30S FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S FOR MOST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MOST OF
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR
REGION - ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THAT ANOTHER SURFACE LOW COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT IT IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM AT
THE SURFACE DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS TAKING A
MORE NORTHERN TRACK (CLOSER TO OUR REGION), WHILE OTHER MODELS
DEPICT THIS LOW GOING WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. IF THE NORTHERN
TRACK VERIFIES, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD KEEP OUR
REGION DRY.
WHILE SOME GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER
FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, IT DEPICTS IT TOO FAR
AWAY FROM OUR REGION TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON RAIN CHANCES. RATHER, DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT IFR TO GENERALLY PREDOMINATE AS RAIN
CONTINUES BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST TOWARDS MORNING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-13 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. WORTH MENTIONING TOO, WINDS AT 2000 FEET ARE AROUND 40 KNOTS
SO THIS WILL CREATE SOME WIND SHEAR ISSUES. ALSO EXPECT
TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...LINGERING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
12Z-15Z FROM WEST TO EAST. CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFTING FROM WEST
IN THE EVENING TO NW OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL 1 PM ON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
THE DELAWARE BAY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. A
FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON MONDAY WITH WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE MORNING
DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET.
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LIKELY WITH FAIR WEATHER RETURNING
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. NW WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH DEW POINTS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND RAIN ONGOING ACROSS
THE REGION, THIS WILL HALT THE THREAT FOR ENHANCED FIRE RISK AT
THIS TIME. A WETTING RAIN OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 45-60% ON MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. MIN RH
VALUES ON TUESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND 35-45% WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-
30 MPH.
CLIMATE
RECORD STRETCH (CONSECUTIVE DAYS) WITHOUT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION:
CURRENT
SITE RECORD RECORD DATES THRU 11/9
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 34 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 38 DAYS
AC MARINA (55N) 39 DAYS AUG-SEP 1995 39 DAYS
THESE STRETCHES WILL LIKELY END TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IF THESE SITES WILL HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IF THEY DON'T, THEN ANOTHER DAY WILL BE ADDED
ON TO THE STRETCH.
FINAL
SITE RECORD RECORD DATES THRU 11/9
GEORGETOWN (GED) 34 DAYS OCT-NOV 2001 43 DAYS
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 29 DAYS OCT-NOV 1874 42 DAYS
TRENTON (TTN) 38 DAYS APR-MAY 1903 42 DAYS
WILMINGTON (ILG) 34 DAYS JAN-FEB 1909 42 DAYS
THESE STRETCHES HAVE ENDED WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEING
RECORDED AT THESE STATIONS THIS EVENING.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/MJL
LONG TERM...JOHNSON/MJL
AVIATION...AKL/DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/MJL
MARINE...DESILVA/FITZSIMMONS/MJL
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
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