878
FXUS61 KPHI 140825
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA PRESENTLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON TODAY
AND MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY BEFORE
RETREATING OFF TO THE E/NE. OVERALL, IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS THAN WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, WITHOUT THE FULL SUN,
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MOSTLY AT LEVELS SEEN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS DELMARVA, SOUTH NJ AND METRO
PHILADELPHIA. FURTHER N/W, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE
SE ACROSS OHIO/WV AND INTO VA. OVERNIGHT THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE VA/NC. IT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAINS MOSTLY JUST
TO OUT WRN/SRN COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUCCESS. WE HAVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY REDUCED POPS/QPF TO THE THE S/W AREAS BUT STILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE.
NO RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN POCONOS OR
MUCH OF NORTH NJ. EVEN IN AREAS THAT GET RAINS, TOTALS AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH ARE ALL THATS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 30S FOR THE DRY AREAS N/W TO THE LOW/MID 40S FOR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
MOVING OUT BY THE LATE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE. GRADUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH ALOFT, CLOUDS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE IN. LOWS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY
OVERALL WITH A MODEST GRADIENT SETTING UP DUE TO THE INCOMING
HIGH AND TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE (ONE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND ONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES). THIS WILL
BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE INFO) AS GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20-30 MPH (UP TO 40 MPH
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS), WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMMENCES.
WINDS DECREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING CLOSER. WITH CLEAR SKIES, WE SHOULD HAVE A
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, WITH LOWS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
FOR MOST, THOUGH THE PHILLY METRO AND COASTAL ZONES WILL STAY ABOVE
FREEZING, PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM EXPECTED, WITH A
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN
PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH THE HIGH SETTLING IN, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO SATURDAY, LIMITING THE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL,
THOUGH RHS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 25-35%. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR MONDAY AS A DIGGING TROUGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. FRONT LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED THOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE PHILADELPHIA METRO. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING TO PUT A DENT IN THE DROUGHT HOWEVER. HIGHS COULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT COMES
THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH IT WON'T LOWER TEMPERATURES MUCH AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN. STILL EXPECTING 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT COULD
BRING SOME ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN, THOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY... INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THEN MID/LOW CLOUDS
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SITES WHICH WILL LARGELY MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY
MEDIUM/HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KRDG/KILG/KMIV TONIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. NO PRECIP IN THE CURRENT TAFS, BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS DELMARVA POSSIBLY AFFECTING KILG
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST MOSTLY AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFD OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PRESENT SCA FLAGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OCEAN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES SE
ACROSS OHIO BEFORE JUMPING OFF THE VA/NC SHORE AREAS TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. AN E TO NE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY AND REMAIN MODERATE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KTS EXPECTED. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FT MUCH OF THE TIME.
GENERALLY FAIR TODAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
DE/SRN NJ WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF MANASQUAN INLET AND
DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO THE REMAINING OCEAN ZONES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY, THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELMARVA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MINIMUM RHS
ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 35-60 PERCENT (LOWEST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY) AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS (LIGHTEST ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY). GIVEN THIS,
NOT EXPECTING ANY CONCERNS REGARDING WILDFIRE SPREAD.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A WETTING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF DELMARVA
WITH 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH QPF FOR THE EASTERN SHORES OF MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE. LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF LIKELY ELSEWHERE, WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH AND EAST
LIKELY SEEING NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH AND MINRH VALUES 25 TO 45 PERCENT.
STRONGER WINDS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND MINRH
VALUES 25 TO 30 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED,
ESPECIALLY FOR PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY AS A WETTING RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH TONIGHT'S SYSTEM.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE MINRH VALUES 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THOUGH WITH LESSER WINDS. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SHORE
PARALLEL WINDS AND INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A FULL
MOON ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE BACK HALF
OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACKBAYS BEGINNING WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE
SO THE PREVIOUS COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY
MODERATE FLOODING THOUGH, PARTICULARLY WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE, MOST LIKELY ALONG THE BACK BAYS IN CAPE MAY, NJ AND
SUSSEX, DE COUNTIES.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY IN BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR BOTH THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.
BY FRIDAY, TIDAL PILING INTO THE DELAWARE BAY LOOKS TO RESULT
IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURING FURTHER NORTH, ALONG THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BIT LOWER IN THE
EXTENT OF WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE DELAWARE
RIVER SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FOR
NOW.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/MPS/RCM
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...NWS PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL/HOEFLICH
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