300
FXUS61 KPHI 141406
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA PRESENTLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER TODAY
AND MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREATING OFF TO THE E/NE. CLOUDY THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MOSTLY AT LEVELS SEEN WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS DELMARVA, SOUTH NJ AND
METRO PHILADELPHIA. FURTHER N/W, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER
40S. IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION BUT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY.
FOR TONIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SLIDE
SE ACROSS OHIO/WV AND INTO VA. OVERNIGHT THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS
IT MOVES OFFSHORE VA/NC. IT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAINS MOSTLY JUST
TO OUT WRN/SRN COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE WILL BE TRYING TO MOVE INTO
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUCCESS. WE HAVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY REDUCED POPS/QPF TO THE THE S/W AREAS BUT STILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE.
NO RAINS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN POCONOS OR
MUCH OF NORTH NJ. EVEN IN AREAS THAT GET RAINS, TOTALS AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH ARE ALL THATS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 30S FOR THE DRY AREAS N/W TO THE LOW/MID 40S FOR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
MOVING OUT BY THE LATE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN DELAWARE. GRADUAL
CLEARING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH ALOFT, CLOUDS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO MOVE OUT.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE IN. LOWS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY
OVERALL WITH A MODEST GRADIENT SETTING UP DUE TO THE INCOMING
HIGH AND TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE (ONE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND ONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES). THIS WILL
BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE INFO) AS GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20-30 MPH (UP TO 40 MPH
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS), WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AS A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMMENCES.
WINDS DECREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING CLOSER. WITH CLEAR SKIES, WE SHOULD HAVE A
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, WITH LOWS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
FOR MOST, THOUGH THE PHILLY METRO AND COASTAL ZONES WILL STAY ABOVE
FREEZING, PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM EXPECTED, WITH A
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IN
PLACE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH THE HIGH SETTLING IN, WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO SATURDAY, LIMITING THE FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL,
THOUGH RHS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 25-35%. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR MONDAY AS A DIGGING TROUGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. FRONT LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED THOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE PHILADELPHIA METRO. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING TO PUT A DENT IN THE DROUGHT HOWEVER. HIGHS COULD
GET INTO THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT COMES
THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH IT WON'T LOWER TEMPERATURES MUCH AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN. STILL EXPECTING 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT COULD
BRING SOME ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN, THOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY... INCREASING MID/LOW CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SITES WHICH WILL LARGELY MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON MEDIUM/HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KRDG/KILG/KMIV TONIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. NO PRECIP IN THE CURRENT TAFS, BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS DELMARVA POSSIBLY AFFECTING KILG
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST MOSTLY AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFD OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PRESENT SCA FLAGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OCEAN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES SE ACROSS OHIO BEFORE JUMPING
OFF THE VA/NC SHORE AREAS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE. AN E TO NE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MODERATE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KTS EXPECTED. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FT MUCH OF THE TIME.
GENERALLY FAIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
TONIGHT ACROSS DE/SRN NJ WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET. AN
SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF MANASQUAN INLET AND
DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO THE REMAINING OCEAN ZONES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELMARVA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MINIMUM RHS
ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BETWEEN 35-60 PERCENT (LOWEST ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY) AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST- NORTHEAST
WINDS (LIGHTEST ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY). GIVEN THIS,
NOT EXPECTING ANY CONCERNS REGARDING WILDFIRE SPREAD.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT, POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A WETTING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF DELMARVA WITH 1/10
TO 1/4 INCH QPF FOR THE EASTERN SHORES OF MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF LIKELY ELSEWHERE, WITH MAJORITY OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH AND EAST LIKELY SEEING
NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH AND MINRH VALUES 25 TO 45 PERCENT.
STRONGER WINDS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND MINRH
VALUES 25 TO 30 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED,
ESPECIALLY FOR PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY AS A WETTING RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED WITH TONIGHT'S SYSTEM.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE MINRH VALUES 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THOUGH WITH LESSER WINDS. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SHORE PARALLEL WINDS AND INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A FULL MOON ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND
THE ASSOCIATED BACKBAYS BEGINNING WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE FOR ALL NJ AND DE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL
AS COUNTIES ALONG DELAWARE BAY. SOME MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING WITHIN CAPE MAY COUNTY, NJ AND SUSSEX
COUNTY, DE BUT WILL STICK WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
NOW AND SEE HOW HIGH WATER LEVELS GET WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH
TIDE.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY IN BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR BOTH THIS
MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.
BY FRIDAY, TIDAL PILING INTO THE DELAWARE BAY LOOKS TO RESULT
IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURING FURTHER NORTH, ALONG THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER. HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
TOMORROW'S HIGH TIDE FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE
RIVER.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
016-020>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/MPS/RCM
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...NWS PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL/HOEFLICH
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