618
FXUS61 KPHI 142208
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
508 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING
AND INTO PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AT
SOME POINT ON ITS COVERAGE, THE MOVEMENT OF THIS RAIN WILL HALT
AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE PENINSULA SO PERHAPS ONLY THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD AND SOUTHERN HALF OF DE RECEIVE SOME RAIN
AND EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN
AMOUNTS MAY ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
THE EASTERN SHORE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S FOR THE DRY AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE COASTAL LOW MOVING
FURTHER OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL GET INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE IN. LOWS
WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER, IT
WILL BE A BREEZY DAY OVERALL WITH A MODEST GRADIENT SETTING UP
DUE TO THE INCOMING HIGH AND TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
(ONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ONE NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES). THIS WILL BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO) AS GUSTS WILL BE AROUND
20-30 MPH (UP TO 40 MPH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS), WITH A DRY
AIRMASS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S AS A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMMENCES.
WINDS DECREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING CLOSER. WITH CLEAR SKIES, WE SHOULD HAVE
A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, WITH LOWS RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING FOR MOST, THOUGH THE PHILLY METRO AND COASTAL ZONES
WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING, PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR MONDAY AS A DIGGING TROUGH PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FRONT LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED
THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO PUT A DENT IN THE
DROUGHT HOWEVER. HIGHS COULD GET INTO THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH
IT WON'T LOWER TEMPERATURES MUCH AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. STILL
EXPECTING 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY,
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN THOUGH MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT COULD BRING SOME
ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS SOME RAIN, THOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
INCREASING CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SITES. A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KRDG/KILG/KMIV TONIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. NO PRECIP IN THE CURRENT TAFS, BUT
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE ACROSS DELMARVA POSSIBLY AFFECTING KILG
OVERNIGHT. EAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST MOSTLY AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFD OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PRESENT SCA FLAGS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES SE ACROSS OHIO BEFORE JUMPING
OFF THE VA/NC SHORE AREAS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE. AN E TO NE ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MODERATE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FT MUCH OF THE TIME.
GENERALLY FAIR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
TONIGHT ACROSS DE/SRN NJ WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
MANASQUAN INLET. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF MANASQUAN INLET AND DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WINDS
AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO
THE REMAINING OCEAN ZONES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT, POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN A WETTING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF DELMARVA WITH 1/10
TO 1/4 INCH QPF FOR THE EASTERN SHORES OF MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH QPF LIKELY ELSEWHERE, WITH MAJORITY OF THE
AREA ESPECIALLY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH AND EAST LIKELY SEEING
NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH AND MINRH VALUES 25 TO 45 PERCENT.
STRONGER WINDS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES ON SATURDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND MINRH
VALUES 25 TO 30 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY AS A WETTING RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH TONIGHT'S SYSTEM.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE MINRH VALUES 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THOUGH WITH LESSER WINDS. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SHORE PARALLEL WINDS AND INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A FULL MOON ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO
COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND LIKELY RECURRING INTO
THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH
TIDE FOR ALL NJ AND DE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL AS COUNTIES
ALONG DELAWARE BAY. GAGES BRIEFLY HITTING MODERATE TIDAL FLOOD
STAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
WITHIN ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES, NJ AND SUSSEX COUNTY, DE
BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IMPACTS OCCURRING IS RELATIVELY LOW
SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
NOW.
WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, TIDAL PILING INTO THE
DELAWARE BAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
OCCURING FURTHER NORTH, ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY MORNING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR
THIS AREA.
WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUING TO RUN HIGH, ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE
SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY COASTS OF NJ AND DE. AN EXTENSION
OF THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS AS A RESULT.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
016-020>027.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/MPS/RCM
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...WFO PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL
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