829
FXUS61 KPHI 150937
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
437 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTH MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING BACK IN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED RAINS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF DELMARVA AND SE PA WITH ALSO SOME ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTH NJ TOO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO END BEFORE DAWN
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES AWAY AND THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS INFLUENCE
ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THRU THE DAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB TO AROUND NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST AREAS AND A BIT COOLER UP NORTH.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME 20
MPH GUSTS EXPECTED. SEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS 35 TO 40
DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A RATHER NICE WEEKEND IS AHEAD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY. WITH THE INCOMING HIGH AND
TWO SURFACE LOWS OFFSHORE (ONE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
ANOTHER NEAR BERMUDA), THERE WILL BE A MODEST GRADIENT SETTING UP,
RESULTING IN A BREEZY SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND 20-30 MPH (UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS). DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFO). TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE LOW
60S.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY, WITH LOWS HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST, AND WARMER LOWS NEAR THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF
TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A NICE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER, POTENTIALLY
CREEPING UP INTO THE MID 60S.
CLOUDS APPROACH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE, BUT
STILL LOOKING DRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY AS A DIGGING TROUGH PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED, WITH
THE BETTER FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AS WELL. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCING ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TRENDING A BIT LATER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMER
SIDE FOR MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS ON
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
WHILE THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH AN EXPANSIVE HIGH OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A DEEP CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
WITH NEAR THE CENTRAL US WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETTING UP OVER
THE CONUS. THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING IN REMAINS THE
QUESTION WITH THE 00Z GEM/GFS SHOWING A FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS
MUCH SLOWER, KEEPING RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. REGARDLESS,
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME RAIN AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON THE
HORIZON, AND THE SPECIFICS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TODAY. CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY WILL ERODE AS DRIER
AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING, BUT THEN
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM NE TO NW BY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE
SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN FOR TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE OCEAN ZONES, EXCEPT
THE NORTHERN-MOST NJ SHORE ZONE. SEAS IN THESE AREAS WILL HOVER
AROUND 5FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS DEEPENING OFF
THE COAST. WE'LL ADD THE REMAINING NJ ZONE AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
AS WINDS STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NW AND GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS BY DAWN SATURDAY. FAIR
WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CHOPPY SEAS DEVELOPING ON DELAWARE BAY
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND 20-30 KT WITH 4 TO 6 FOOT
SEAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH AND MINRH VALUES 25 TO 45 PERCENT. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS POSTED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR OUR NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA ZONES.
A WETTING RAIN FELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE
AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF DELMARVA
WERE AROUND 0.01" TO 0.05". WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF ANY SPS IS NEEDED, THOUGH
FORECAST MIN RH OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA CURRENTLY IS AROUND
40-50%.
THE MOST CONCERNING DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AS STRONGER WINDS WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND MINRH VALUES 25 TO 35 PERCENT
ARE ANTICIPATED. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE MINRH VALUES 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THOUGH WITH LESSER WINDS. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SHORE PARALLEL WINDS AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A FULL MOON TODAY WILL LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED FOR
THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. GAGES BRIEFLY HITTING
MODERATE TIDAL FLOOD STAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITHIN ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES, NJ AND
SUSSEX COUNTY, DE BUT THINKING THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS TIDAL
LEVELS FALLING JUST BELOW MODERATE STAGE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST AND WITHIN
DELAWARE BAY, HENCE THE EXTENSION TO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY.
WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE, TIDAL PILING INTO THE DELAWARE
BAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURING ALONG
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS
MORNING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS AREA.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ016.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR DEZ001.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...NWS PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKL/HOEFLICH
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