053
FXUS61 KPHI 151717
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1217 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTH MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING BACK IN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HAS
RESULTED IN A SLUG OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS SPREADING INTO BERKS
COUNTY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE DELAWARE VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL SCATTER
OUT ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB TO AROUND NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST AREAS AND A BIT COOLER UP
NORTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME 20 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED. SEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH
LOWS 35 TO 40 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A RATHER NICE WEEKEND IS AHEAD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY. WITH THE
INCOMING HIGH AND TWO SURFACE LOWS OFFSHORE (ONE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ANOTHER NEAR BERMUDA), THERE WILL BE A
MODEST GRADIENT SETTING UP, RESULTING IN A BREEZY SATURDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AROUND
20-30 MPH (UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS). DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE INFO). TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE LOW 60S.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
GETS CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL PRETTY QUICKLY, WITH LOWS HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST, AND WARMER LOWS NEAR THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE COAST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF
TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN A NICE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER, POTENTIALLY
CREEPING UP INTO THE MID 60S.
CLOUDS APPROACH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE,
BUT STILL LOOKING DRY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY AS A DIGGING TROUGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED, WITH THE BETTER FORCING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AS WELL.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH SOME WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TRENDING A BIT LATER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE FOR MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS
ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
WHILE THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY
PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S.
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, WE HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A DEEP CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING WITH NEAR THE CENTRAL US WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER THE CONUS. THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVING
IN REMAINS THE QUESTION WITH THE 00Z GEM/GFS SHOWING A FASTER
SOLUTION BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER, KEEPING RIDGING IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE SOME RAIN AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON, AND THE SPECIFICS WILL
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...MVFR CIGS AT KRDG UNTIL 00Z. VFR ELSEWHERE. NW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING AT KRDG. HIGH CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS
AFTER 15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN FOR TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE OCEAN ZONES,
EXCEPT THE NORTHERN-MOST NJ SHORE ZONE. SEAS IN THESE AREAS WILL
HOVER AROUND 5FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS
DEEPENING OFF THE COAST. WE'LL ADD THE REMAINING NJ ZONE AND
DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT AS WINDS STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AND GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KTS BY DAWN SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. CHOPPY
SEAS DEVELOPING ON DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND 20-30 KT WITH 4
TO 6 FOOT SEAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH AND MINRH VALUES 25 TO 45 PERCENT. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IS POSTED FOR THIS PERIOD FOR OUR NEW JERSEY AND
PENNSYLVANIA ZONES.
A WETTING RAIN FELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE
AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF DELMARVA
WERE AROUND 0.01" TO 0.05". WILL COORDINATE WITH FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF ANY SPS IS NEEDED, THOUGH
FORECAST MIN RH OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA CURRENTLY IS AROUND
40-50%.
THE MOST CONCERNING DAY WILL BE SATURDAY AS STRONGER WINDS WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND MINRH VALUES 25 TO 35 PERCENT
ARE ANTICIPATED. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.
SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN FEATURE MINRH VALUES 25 TO 35 PERCENT
THOUGH WITH LESSER WINDS. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SHORE PARALLEL WINDS AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A FULL MOON TODAY WILL LEAD TO COASTAL
FLOODING CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING OCCURRED THIS MORNING ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE, INCLUDING A FEW GAUGES BRIEFLY
TOUCHING MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL DECLINE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY, HENCE
THE EXTENSION TO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN THESE LOCATIONS
THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. NO ADDITIONAL MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDES.
WITH THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE, TIDAL PILING INTO THE DELAWARE
BAY WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURING
ALONG THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THIS MORNING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS AREA.
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, HOWEVER CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE GAUGE AT TOLCHESTER BEACH OR CLAIBORNE
BRIEFLY TOUCHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH
TIDE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...MPS/OHARA
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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