175
FXUS61 KPHI 161114
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TODAY, REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTS SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SOME PESKY STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
LEHIGH VALLEY AS SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINS STUCK
BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. OTHERWISE, A QUIET SATURDAY
MORNING IS ONGOING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND ANY REMAINING
STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES SHOULD BREAK BY THE LATE MORNING.
WITH THE INCOMING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST, A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMING TOGETHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO). EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO PICK UP BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING, BETWEEN 20-30 MPH (UP TO 40 MPH IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS) THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE TODAY
WILL FEATURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES, GETTING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH 50S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE NIGHT-TIME INVERSION KICKING IN AND
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING CLOSER, RESULTING IN A WEAKENING GRADIENT.
STILL WILL BE A BIT OF A NORTHWEST BREEZE, PREVENTING TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY
AIRMASS OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN, EVENTUALLY SETTLING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURES IN
URBAN PHILADELPHIA AND ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW
40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE FAIR WEATHER FROM THE NEAR TERM EXTENDS INTO THE SHORT TERM WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY SUNDAY AND PARTLY SUNNY MONDAY
AS SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ARRIVE LATER DURING THE DAY. IT WILL
CONTINUE MILD WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MORE LIKE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S N/W AND LOW/MID 40S FOR DELMARVA AND METRO
PHILADELPHIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE BETTER WEATHER DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE FOUND AT THE
BEGINNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARBY
(BUT MOVING AWAY) AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. WE'LL
HAVE A DRY FORECAST AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL (FOR MID
NOVEMBER) HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
AFTER THAT, THE OP MODELS ARE RATHER DISSIMILAR WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MOVING UP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THEN DOWN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS HAVE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING EITHER NEAR THE
COAST OR UP JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. SOME OF THE EARLIER RUNS HAVE
THE LOW PRESSURE SUB-980 MB. DEPENDING ON WHAT EVENTUALLY SETTLES
OUT WILL DETERMINE THE TYPE AND EXTENT OF ANY (POSSIBLE) HAZARDS FOR
THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD. FOR NOW, THE NBM POPS/WX WERE USED FOR THE
FCST WITH LIKELY POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND MOSTLY HIGH CHANCE FOR THU.
THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER WINDY TOO, AGAIN DEPENDING ON WHICH
FCST WORKS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY..MVFR STRATUS HAS LINGERED AROUND KABE. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
STICK AROUND UNTIL 13Z-14Z, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AND
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH TODAY. VFR FOR THE REMAINING
TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT
GUSTS AFTER 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT... VFR EXPECTED.
WED/THU... SUB-VFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS PROBABLE.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FOR ALL
WATERS AS 25-30 KT WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
THE SCA EXPIRES AT 10 PM FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF MANASQUAN INLET
AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH THE REMAINING ZONES EXPIRING 1 AM SUNDAY
MORNING AS CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS. NO
MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED AFTER 1 AM SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED.
WED/THU... SCA OR LOW-END GALES POSSIBLE. SHOWERS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW
JERSEY FOR TODAY. WITH CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS, MINRH
VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT, AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 25 TO 30 MPH
GUSTS STARTING LATE THIS MORNING.
FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND DELAWARE, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS, MINRH VALUES TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 40
AND 50 PERCENT. AS A RESULT, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
THREAT FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
ISSUED FOR SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE 30-45 PERCENT
AND THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS COMPARED TO SATURDAY (NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH). DESPITE THE CONTINUED VERY DRY SURFACE
CONDITIONS, THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH LOWER RISK
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SHORE PARALLEL WINDS EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A FULL MOON YESTERDAY
HAS LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THIS
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL DECLINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST AND WITHIN DELAWARE BAY. THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE FOR ATLANTIC AND CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY AND
SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE. MAY NEED TO ADD THE REMAINING NEW
JERSEY COAST TO THE EXTENDED ADVISORY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
NORTH OF ATLANTIC COUNTY. NO ADDITIONAL MODERATE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDES.
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS MORNING EITHER ALONG
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ012>014-020-
021-026-027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ022>025.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR DEZ002.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...NWS PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NWS PHI
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