941
FXUS61 KPHI 170816
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN A QUIET PERIOD OVERALL. WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD,
WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS. WE
START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES
ON AND INTO THE NIGHT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING
AT UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE NICE WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND SPILLS OVER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES MON/TUE. MILD TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY
WILL BE THE MILDER TO THE TWO DAYS WITH MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
FOR DELMARVA, SOUTH NJ AND METRO PHILADELPHIA. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INCREASE OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH SETS UP OVER THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TUE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN SWITCH TO MORE SEASONABLE LATE NOVEMBER
WEATHER AFTER A MILD WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS WEDNESDAY THEN PLOWS ACROSS THE (NORTHERN) MIDDLE
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. MOST OP
MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SURFACE/UPPER AIR LOWS FOR
THU/FRI. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS THRU
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL (AFTER WEDNESDAY). WE'LL GO ALONG WITHE NBM POPS WITH
MOSTLY CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS BUT SOME LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE
FROPA WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. A FEW TSTMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WED NIGHT TOO. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES, WE
MAY HAVE SOME WIND HAZARDS FOR THE AREA THU/FRI ALSO, CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS N/W FOR THE THU/FRI
NIGHT PERIODS.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT, BECOMING W IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY... SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS. A
FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WED
NIGHT/THU.
MARINE
ALL MARINE HEADLINES HAVE EXPIRED. NO FURTHER HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BE AROUND 10-
20 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
MON THRU WED... SUB-SCA. FAIR WEATHER.
WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY... SCA EXPECTED. SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSTMS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY, MINRH VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT FOR NEW
JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA AND BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT AT THE EASTERN
SHORES OF MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER, GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LOWER RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
ARE WARRANTED AT THE MOMENT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SHORE PARALLEL WINDS EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A RECENT FULL MOON HAVE
LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COAST, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. NO ADDITIONAL MODERATE
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDES.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND OR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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