349
FXUS61 KPHI 171433
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY, THEN SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH UPPER 50S IN
THE POCONOS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND INTO
THE NIGHT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
LOOKING AT UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE NICE WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND SPILLS OVER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES MON/TUE. MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S. MONDAY WILL BE THE MILDER TO THE TWO DAYS WITH
MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FOR DELMARVA, SOUTH NJ AND METRO
PHILADELPHIA. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH SETS UP OVER
THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN SWITCH TO MORE SEASONABLE LATE
NOVEMBER WEATHER AFTER A MILD WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS WEDNESDAY THEN PLOWS ACROSS THE
(NORTHERN) MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY. RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. MOST OP MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL
SURFACE/UPPER AIR LOWS FOR THU/FRI. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS THRU MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (AFTER WEDNESDAY).
WE'LL GO ALONG WITHE NBM POPS WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS MOST
PERIODS BUT SOME LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE FROPA WED NIGHT/THU
MORNING. A FEW TSTMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
NIGHT TOO. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES, WE MAY HAVE
SOME WIND HAZARDS FOR THE AREA THU/FRI ALSO, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS N/W FOR THE THU/FRI
NIGHT PERIODS.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT, BACKING TO THE W-SW THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. W WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY... SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS.
A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS
WED NIGHT/THU.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
MON THRU WED... SUB-SCA. FAIR WEATHER.
WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY... SCA EXPECTED. SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSTMS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, ONLY 5-10 MPH. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL GET BETWEEN 25-35% IN NEW JERSEY AND 35-45% IN
DELAWARE, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND MARGINAL RH VALUES, NO
HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS ARE IN PLACE.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, OTHER THAN IT BEING DRY, NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH MINIMUM RHS ABOVE 40% AND
LIGHT WINDS. SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SHORE PARALLEL WINDS EARLIER THIS
WEEK AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH A RECENT FULL MOON HAVE
LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COAST, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THIS MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING'S HIGH TIDE FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST FROM OCEAN
COUNTY ON SOUTH. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES FOR THE REMAINING AREAS
WHERE THE ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND OR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>014-021.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ020-
022>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/MPS
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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