792
FXUS61 KPHI 171749
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE
DATABASE.
A BEAUTIFUL AUTUMN DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY, THEN SLIDING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH UPPER 50S IN
THE POCONOS. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON AND INTO
THE NIGHT. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
LOOKING AT UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE NICE WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND SPILLS OVER INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES MON/TUE. MILD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S. MONDAY WILL BE THE MILDER TO THE TWO DAYS WITH
MID/UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FOR DELMARVA, SOUTH NJ AND METRO
PHILADELPHIA. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA TUE
NIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH SETS UP OVER
THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TUE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN SWITCH TO MORE SEASONABLE LATE
NOVEMBER WEATHER AFTER A MILD WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS WEDNESDAY THEN PLOWS ACROSS THE
(NORTHERN) MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY. RIDGING DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. MOST OP MODELS SHOW A STRONG COLD OR OCCLUDED FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL
SURFACE/UPPER AIR LOWS FOR THU/FRI. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS THRU MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL (AFTER WEDNESDAY).
WE'LL GO ALONG WITHE NBM POPS WITH MOSTLY CHANCE POPS MOST
PERIODS BUT SOME LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE FROPA WED NIGHT/THU
MORNING. A FEW TSTMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WED
NIGHT TOO. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES, WE MAY HAVE
SOME WIND HAZARDS FOR THE AREA THU/FRI ALSO, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS N/W FOR THE THU/FRI
NIGHT PERIODS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT, BACKING TO THE W-SW THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. W WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY... SUB-VFR AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS.
A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS
WED NIGHT/THU.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
MON THRU WED... SUB-SCA. FAIR WEATHER.
WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY... SCA EXPECTED. SHOWERS. SCATTERED TSTMS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR TODAY, WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, ONLY 5-10 MPH. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL GET BETWEEN 25-35% IN NEW JERSEY AND 35-45% IN
DELAWARE, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND MARGINAL RH VALUES, NO
HEADLINES OR STATEMENTS ARE IN PLACE.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, OTHER THAN IT BEING DRY, NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED WITH MINIMUM RHS ABOVE 40% AND
LIGHT WINDS. SOME WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EVEN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
DESPITE AN OFFSHORE WIND, TIDE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FROM THE
RECENT FULL MOON AND THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES PUSHING WATER BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. THE THREAT
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEW
JERSEY OCEANFRONT AND THE NEW JERSEY SIDE OF THE DELAWARE BAY
COAST, SO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE
NEW JERSEY OCEANFRONT AND NEW JERSEY'S DELAWARE BAY COAST THROUGH
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE RARITAN BAY
COAST ALONG MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE COAST,
BOTH THE OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY AT 1 PM, ALTHOUGH SOME
SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH MONDAY
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND OR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/MPS
SHORT TERM...OHARA
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page