742
FXUS61 KPHI 172321
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ON MONDAY AND CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES FRIDAY, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE NORTHEAST, THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC, AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND THIS WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE REGION.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA, IT WILL BE FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TURN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER, TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WINDS BECOME NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT, AND THEN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FAIR WEATHER TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE HIGH WILL BREAKDOWN AND
RETREAT AS A WARM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN. THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN
OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUIDANCE NO LONGER SHOWS ANY
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DIMINISHED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA TO RECEIVE 0.50" 1" OR MORE, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
SEEING 0.25" TO 0.50." THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMS AND TRACKS. IF IT FORMS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST THEN TRACKS OVER THE AREA, WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEEING THE HEAVIER AND MORE STEADY RAIN.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL SPIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY. EVENTUALLY THE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVER NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST, CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE WILL EVEN BE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. BY SUNDAY, SHOWER CHANCED WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. SCT/BKN250. W WINDS 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 7 TO 12 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH EXPECTED SHOWERS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CONDITIONS MAY VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT, THEN CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT, BECOMING NW 15 TO 20 KT ON MONDAY.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY DUE TO
WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, BUT THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON (UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG
RIDGES). HOWEVER, MINRH VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 40 TO 50
PERCENT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
DESPITE AN OFFSHORE WIND, TIDE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FROM THE
RECENT FULL MOON AND THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES PUSHING WATER BACK TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. THE THREAT
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEW
JERSEY OCEANFRONT AND THE NEW JERSEY SIDE OF THE DELAWARE BAY
COAST, SO THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN FOR THE ENTIRE
NEW JERSEY OCEANFRONT AND NEW JERSEY'S DELAWARE BAY COAST THROUGH
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE RARITAN BAY
COAST ALONG MIDDLESEX COUNTY AS WELL AS THE DELAWARE COAST,
BOTH THE OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY AT 1 PM, ALTHOUGH SOME
SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH MONDAY
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND OR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
020>027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/MPS
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DESILVA/MPS/ROBERTSON
MARINE...MPS/ROBERTSON
FIRE WEATHER...WFO PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI
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