426
FXUS61 KPHI 181712
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1212 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF TODAY, REMAINING IN CONTROL
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY, BEFORE
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WE MADE A FEW SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS
AND LEHIGH VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THAT, QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH MOVES AWAY AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS
OUR WAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT FOR MOST. MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS DOWN ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. IT'LL REMAIN MILD WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AS
WELL. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR S/E AREAS AND
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTH NJ. WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST, AGAIN
MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DELMARVA. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MOST AREAS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONE LAST DRY DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE COMES BRINGING
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS SLOWLY OFFSHORE WITH
AN OVERALL NICE DAY EXPECTED. CLOUDS INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, MAINLY SOUTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES IN AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH, JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVERALL AND AREAS
NEAR/NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA SHOULD STAY DRY ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES, AND
WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, AND UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN THE NORTHERN HALF.
THE WEDNESDAY DAYTIME PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE LATE MORNING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD AND OFFSHORE BEFORE AN EXPANSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY, MAINLY
IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH, WITH A SPREAD OF 60S
ANTICIPATED, WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WELL AS SOME RAIN.
FIRST PERIOD OF RAIN COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED AS SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH, AS THIS WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH GUSTY WINDS AS A
TIGHT GRADIENT SETS UP WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN (AND EVEN SOME POTENTIAL SNOW
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) SHOWERS THROUGH BOTH DAYS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SHOWERS TO BE AS HEAVY AS THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECTED
DREARY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SLOWLY PULL AWAY BY
THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS WELL AS SOME SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS KRDG
AND KABE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
EXPECTED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT W/NW WINDS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT KACY/KMIV/KILG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND, MAINLY AT
KRDG/KABE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. RAIN COULD BE A BIT HEAVY ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AT TIMES.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH REASSERTS CONTROL OF THE WINDS/WEATHER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD TODAY AND
REMAIN UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS AND SEAS COME UP
SHORT FOR A SCA FLAG BUT SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH NJ COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED (90-100%) WITH GALES POSSIBLE (50-60%).
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF NOON, THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
MONMOUTH AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AS WATER LEVELS
AT HIGH TIDE WERE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
DESPITE AN OFFSHORE WIND, SOME TIDE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED.
THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FROM
THE FULL MOON LATE LAST WEEK AND LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES PUSHING WATER BACK TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE FOR OCEAN/ATLANTIC/CAPE MAY COUNTIES, WITH SPOTTY
MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
ONLY SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE DELAWARE
COAST AND DELAWARE SIDE OF DELAWARE BAY FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE, THOUGH TIDE LEVELS COULD GET TO ADVISORY LEVEL WITH
TUESDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE POSTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
IN THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND OR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ020-
022>027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/OHARA
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI
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