454
FXUS61 KPHI 191624
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1124 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT MOVES INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE THEN LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ONCE AGAIN, WE MADE A FEW SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
LATE THIS MORNING, BUT OVERALL, THE NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS
VERY MUCH ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES AT 11 AM WERE MAINLY IN THE
50S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
A STATIONARY FRONT, FOR TIME BEING, IS SITUATED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. AS A RESULT, MORE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, PARTICULARLY ONCE WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH A MID-LAYER DECK WORKING INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, THE FRONT BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT, AND POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN A FEW, LIGHT SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND
POPS ARE GENERALLY 20-30% IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE,
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES
EXPECTED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
LOW PRESSURE IN THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK. EXACT INTENSITY AND
TRACK IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT OVERALL, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM, MODERATE TO HEAVY IN SOME AREAS MOST
LIKELY NORTH, WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A BIT OF SNOW ON
THE BACK SIDE MAINLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A WARM FRONT WILL BE STRUGGLING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A BIT OF SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR A FEW SHOWERS. OVERALL
GUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT MAKES IT,
BUT SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES LOOK LIKELY TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 70.
FURTHER NORTH, CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER ON THE WARM FRONT MAKING
IT THROUGH, WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE 50S ALL DAY FROM
NEAR PHILLY NORTHWARD. NOT THE NICEST OF DAYS, BUT MOSTLY DRY
STILL.
THAT ALL QUICKLY CHANGES WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER
TROUGH ROTATES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA, GOING NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
DOES. THIS TROUGH LIKELY RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TRIPLE-POINT LOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OR JUST OFF
THE COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
LOW, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY DURING THE NIGHT, AND FURTHER
SOUTH, CLOSER TO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE SURFACE LOW, THERE
COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE THUNDER. RAINFALL LOOKS HIGHLY BENEFICIAL
GIVEN THE HISTORICAL DROUGHT WE'VE ENTERED, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND PONDING COULD BE A PROBLEM ESPECIALLY WHERE STORM
DRAINS REMAIN COVERED BY AUTUMN LEAVES. UNFORTUNATELY, SOUTHERN
AREAS WHERE THE DROUGHT HAS BEEN QUITE SEVERE FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL MONTHS ALREADY LOOK LEAST LIKELY TO BENEFIT FROM THE
RAINS, WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY.
FURTHER NORTH TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE CAN BE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ALLENTOWN. IN BETWEEN, A HALF INCH TO AN
INCH SEEMS LIKELY FROM WILMINGTON TO PHILLY TO TRENTON TO
READING. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
MAIN BAND OF RAIN LOOKS TO QUICKLY PASS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING THURSDAY, WITH COOLER AIR AND A GUSTY BREEZE
TAKING OVER BEHIND THE LOW. FROM THIS POINT, THE LOW LOOKS
LIKELY TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OR JUST NORTH OF NEW
YORK CITY, AND WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, IN FACT LIKELY BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS DURING THIS TIME. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN ON THE BACK
SIDE, EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE MIXING AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS DEFINITELY LOOK CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH 1-3 INCHES NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
POCONO PLATEAU THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST,
WITH UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS NEARBY WHILE WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES
STACKED WITH THE UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY BEFORE PULLING AWAY OVER
THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO
FAR WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S (30S POCONOS AND 50S
FAR SOUTH) ALONG WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
AREAS AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRISK WIND WILL
ADD TO THE WINTRY FEEL.
UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BIT OF MODERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH
NOTABLY DRIER CONDITIONS. THAT SAID, TEMPS LIKELY ONLY BOUNCE
BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS, WITH 50S COMMON DURING THE DAYS AND 30S
AT NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY FAVORING A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING THEN FAVORING A MORE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CEILINGS, THOUGH SOME CIGS RIGHT AROUND
3000' ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z, PARTICULARLY AT KRDG AND KABE. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, WITH LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN.
CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR LATER THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL SOUTHWARD, BUT SHOWERS LINGER AND MAY IN
FACT INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. FRIDAY
ONLY LOOKING A BIT BETTER, BUT DEFINITE IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY RETURNING SATURDAY. WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WNW BY THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30
KTS POSSIBLE, CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS OF 1-3 FEET THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE LIKELY TO BRING AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
GALES TO MOST WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AS IT STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE HOISTED GALE WATCHES FOR ALL BUT
NORTHERNMOST OCEAN WATERS DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
RAMP-UP SO NOT LIKELY TO NEED SCA'S DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY,
WHEN WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WAVES REMAIN LOW. HOWEVER,
LONG PERIOD OF SCA'S, PERHAPS WITH INSTANCES OF GALES, LOOK TO
CONTINUE BEYOND THE CURRENT GALE WATCH PERIOD FOR ALL WATERS
INCLUDING THE FAR NORTHERN OCEAN ZONE NOT IN THE WATCH AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS NEARBY. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER
IN THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING'S
HIGH TIDE FOR OCEAN/ATLANTIC/CAPE MAY COUNTIES, WITH SPOTTY
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECLINE AFTER THIS MORNING'S CYCLE AND NOTHING MORE THAN SPOTTY
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK.
CLIMATE
DRIEST AUTUMN (SEP-NOV) ON RECORD, AND ANY 3-CALENDAR MONTH
PERIOD ON RECORD, PLUS CURRENT STATUS:
9/1-11/18 DRIEST DRIEST 3 YEAR/
SITE 2024 PRECIP AUTUMN YEAR CALENDAR MONTHS MONTHS
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 1.61 3.81 1922 3.58 OCT-DEC 1928
A.C. AIRPORT (ACY) 0.99 3.34 2001 2.35 OCT-DEC 1946
A.C. MARINA (55N) 0.79 2.89 1941 2.52 AUG-OCT 1895
GEORGETOWN (GED) 0.85 2.67 2001 2.20 AUG-OCT 2024
MOUNT POCONO (MPO) 3.17 4.21 1931 3.36 OCT-DEC 1928
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 1.08 2.37 1922 2.37 SEP-NOV 1922
READING (RDG) 1.40 2.89 1922 2.89 SEP-NOV 1922
TRENTON (TTN) 0.67 3.18 1922 2.66 JUN-AUG 1966
WILMINGTON (ILG) 0.86 3.17 1922 3.17 SEP-NOV 1922
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ020-022>027.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ430-431-451>455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/RCM
NEAR TERM...AKL/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...AKL/RCM
MARINE...AKL/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM/PHI
CLIMATE...RCM
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