994
FXUS61 KPHI 142023
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A SHOT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING BEHIND IT WHICH MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE
SNOW. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SUNNY BUT BRISK JANUARY DAY IS ONGOING AS TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25-35 MPH HAVE RESULTED IN WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING
NEAR TENNESSEE ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO, A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO,
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND SUNSET.
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES ARE QUITE DRY, ISOLATED FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IT
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATE A WEAK INVERSION
DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. WHEN FACTORING
IN THE WIND, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (SUB-ZERO IN THE POCONOS). WILL FALL SHORT OF COLD
WEATHER HAZARDS, HOWEVER.
WEDNESDAY WILL ESSENTIALLY BE A CARBON COPY OF TODAY AS NO REAL
CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURES MAY IN
FACT BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AGAIN, WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM, OTHER THAN COLD, IS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING. BEFORE THEN, MAINLY DRY AND COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEFORE
PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS.
WE'LL START WITH SOME SUN THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CLOUDS LIKELY
FILL IN FAIRLY WELL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST GUIDANCE HAS AT
LEAST A BIT OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ITS UPPER
LVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THUS, HAVE CHANCE POPS MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF I-95 LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING,
SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE, BUT LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE SNOW
EXPECTED. WHERE IT DOES OCCUR, TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. HIGHS MID 30S DELMARVA AND SOUTH JERSEY, NEAR
FREEZING I-95, NEAR 30 I-78 CORRIDOR, 20S POCONOS AND NW NJ,
WITH LOWS NEAR 20 FOR MOST, TEENS POCONOS AND NW NJ.
THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION AS A PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION, ACCOMPANIED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL
PROBABLY MAKE FRIDAY THE NICEST DAY OF THE CURRENT 7-DAY
FORECAST. HIGHS NEAR 40 FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE HEADS OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE NEXT STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS A BIT MILDER, WITH MOST PLACES
STAYING IN THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30.
CLOUDS WILL PREDOMINATE SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MORNING STILL LOOKS DRY, BUT RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THAT SAID, TOTAL AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE MEAGER, SO NOT A
WASHOUT OR HEAVY RAIN RISK AT ALL. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
MILDER, WITH HIGHS MOSTL IN THE LOW-MID 40S, WITH LOWS DROPPING
TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER RAIN PULLS
OUT.
A BRIEF BREAK TAKES HOLD SUNDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THEN A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO POSSIBLY
DEVELOP A NEW LOW JUST OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. WITH THE SYSTEM
REMAINING OFF SHORE AND DEVELOPING PRETTY LATE, PRECIP AMOUNTS
LOOK LIGHT, BUT BY THIS POINT, IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL PRECIP TO BE SNOW, SO A WIDESPREAD IF LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LIKELY
PULLS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY, WITH THE WELL-ADVERTISED VERY
COLD AIR MASS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES. BY 22Z, A BKN CLOUD DECK
SHOULD OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 6000-8000 FEET. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. BKN CEILINGS EARLY, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
03- 04Z. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT. GUSTS MAY
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH FEW/SCT AFTERNOON CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS
BELOW VFR, MOST LIKELY AFFECTING KRDG AND KABE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH A BIT OF
RAIN OR SOME SHOWERS, LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY.
SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR, DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL OF POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND THE DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE DELAWARE
BAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE DELAWARE BAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FEET.
FOR TONIGHT, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET. ON WEDNESDAY,
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR/WATER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY
WINDS, AND ENHANCED SEAS, MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY ACCRETION IS
LIKELY BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SUBSIDING SLOWLY BUT MOSTLY STILL
AT SCA LEVELS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET,
MAINLY EARLY. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...GENERALLY BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH WIND GUSTS MOSTLY
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS MOSTLY BELOW 4 FEET.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS,
BUT SEAS STILL MOSTLY BELOW 4 FEET. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA OVERALL WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 4 FEET.
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOP WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET. RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROPPING BACK BELOW SCA WITH GUSTS
MOSTLY BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4 FEET OR LESS. RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SCA RAMPS BACK UP WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING BACK TO 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/RCM
NEAR TERM...DESILVA
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...DESILVA/RCM
MARINE...DESILVA/RCM
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