151
FXUS61 KPHI 200532
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY WILL
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER MONDAY, THEN
INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ONE AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN AS THE WINTER
STORM COMES TO A CLOSE. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY GUSTING AROUND 20-30 MPH AT THE MOMENT. THAT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 25-35 MPH AFTER SUNRISE ONCE MIXING
IMPROVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CRATER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE
TEENS ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN A FEW SINGLE- DIGITS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0 DEGREES FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE POCONOS WILL CERTAINLY SEE THE WORST,
HOWEVER, WITH A WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND -10 DEGREES (YES, WE
DID MEAN TO SAY TEN DEGREES BELOW ZERO). FOR THESE AREAS WITH
THE HAZARDOUS COLD, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
ELSEWHERE, THE WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW AND IN
THE SINGLE-DIGITS. THIS RAPID ONSET COLD IN THE WAKE OF OUR
WINTER STORM WILL ALSO BRING UP THE CONCERN OF SLIPPERY AND ICY
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY PERSISTING EVEN AFTER PRECIPITATION HAS
LONG ENDED. ADDITIONALLY, WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THAT SAW THE BULK OF THE SNOW EARLIER IN THE DAY
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, POTENTIALLY
COVERING STREETS AND SIDEWALKS THAT HAD ALREADY BEEN CLEARED
BEFORE.
THE COLD WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN FOR MONDAY TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. DESPITE A MIX OF
SUN AND CLOUDS, HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH ONLY TEENS FOR THE POCONO PLATEAU. WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP IT
BLUSTERY THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AS A
RESULT WITH OUR FRIENDS IN THE POCONOS GETTING THE SHORT END OF THE
STICK WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ALL DAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DANGEROUS COLD GRIPS THE REGION WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS. STARTING WITH MONDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEGATIVES
FOR THE POCONOS. WINDS DURING MONDAY NIGHT WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 25
MPH WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO IN DELMARVA TO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS IN THE POCONOS. MOST WILL HAVE NEGATIVE WIND
CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THESE FORECASTED CONDITIONS, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE AREA FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME. TUESDAY IS QUITE THE COLD DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING TEENS
TO LOW 20S FOR MOST. AS FOR THE WINDS, GUSTS REMAIN UPWARDS OF 15
MPH. THE COMBINATION OF THOSE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVES FOR THE POCONOS, SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE
LEHIGH VALLEY WITH OTHER LOCATIONS BEING SOMEWHERE IN THE TEENS.
ANOTHER DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVES FOR THE POCONOS AND SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WINDS REMAIN 5-10 MPH AND LEADS TO WIND CHILLS IN
THE NEGATIVES AREAWIDE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS REACH THE
TEENS FOR MOST AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY 5-10 MPH WHICH LEADS TO WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEK GIVEN THESE FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
AS FOR THE WEATHER FEATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WE HAVE AN
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
AT THE UPPER-LEVELS, A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOW THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE THINGS A LITTLE
INTERESTING BECAUSE THERE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, THIS IS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH MOST MODELS KEEP OFFSHORE WITH NO
PRECIPITATION REACHING OUR AREA. RIGHT NOW, ONLY PART OF THE AREA
HAS BEEN SHADED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR SNOW. THE MODELS
THAT KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE HAVE A STRONGER HIGH IN PLACE
WHILE THE ONES THAT SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE AREA SHOW
WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH ALLOWING THE LOW TO GET CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS
THINGS QUIET WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE UPPER-LEVELS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
TEMPERATURES START TO IMPROVE THURSDAY AND IT CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AFTER A VERY COLD FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES START TO
IMPROVE IN THE LONG TERM. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWING THURSDAY, EACH DAY
BUILDS UPON THE PREVIOUS DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES.
FOR WEATHER FEATURES, THERE IS STILL THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAVING ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS MOVING
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY IS HINTED TO ROTATE THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, THIS WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THIS BEING IN THE LONG TERM. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO BRUSH PARTS OF OUR AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE WERE THE EXTENT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION DURING
THAT TIME PERIOD. FOR THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT...SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT, THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN
AT KACY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT, HIGHER AT KACY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
DURATION OR EXTENT OF BLSN, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK TO
INCLUDE A MENTION IN BOTH TAFS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING SOME
MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...PREVAILING VFR. SMALL CHANCE (20 -
30%) OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA, WITH GUSTS AROUND
30-35 KT. FREEZING SPRAY BECOMES A CONCERN OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FOR MONDAY, WINDS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS CONTINUE ALONG WITH
FREEZING SPRAY.
A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY AT TIMES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-101-103-105.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR NJZ010-012>027.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ001-
007>009.
DE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/JOHNSON/MJL
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...AKL/HOEFLICH/JOHNSON
MARINE...HOEFLICH/JOHNSON/MJL
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