871
FXUS61 KPHI 201100
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
600 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS WILL EVER SO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD
BEHIND IT, ENDING UP CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE
FRIDAY. ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL HEAD GENERALLY EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY,
CROSSING OUR REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE IT TOO HEADS OUT TO SEA
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ARCTIC AIR MASS PRESENTLY IN PLACE IS KEEPING THE REGION COLD
FOR THE MOMENT, WITH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS LIKELY DEEP INTO THE
TEENS AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SOME SPOTS IN THE POCONOS
DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO START THE DAY. THE COASTAL LOWS
EFFECTS WILL NOW BE PRIMARILY PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATED AS WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, FORCING WITH THE
APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
LIKELY LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND THEN SNOW
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS
TODAY BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY EVERYONE. OVERALL, CONSISTENCY
IMPROVED WITH GUIDANCE ON THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT, SO NUDGED POPS
UP A BIT, BUT STILL MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE TO HIGH- CHANCE RANGE.
IN THE NORTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE POCONOS, WENT LIKELY
GIVEN THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND THE FAVORABLE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH, PROMOTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
SNOWFALL THERE. THAT HAVING BEEN SAID, EVEN THERE, WE'RE NOT
LOOKING AT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO, AND FOR THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE REGION, ACCUMULATIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
LESS THAN AN INCH. THAT SAID, WITH COLD TEMPS, ROADS COULD GET
SLIPPERY ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, SO ANYONE WITH
PLANS TO BE OUT AND ABOUT SHOULD USE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW PASSES THIS EVENING, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND
THE WIND WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE LESS COLD TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. WINDS PEAK
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH. HOWEVER, THE
INCOMING AIR MASS IS ACTUALLY LESS SEVERE, SO TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE AND HIGHS SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY UNDER
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S, WITH HIGHS GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY, IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S, WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINING A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER, WITH A SPREAD OF 20S REGION-WIDE.
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE END
OF FEBRUARY LOOKING A BIT WARMER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN
PLAY FOR NEXT WEEK BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH, ONE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND ANOTHER IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, THESE SYSTEMS LIKELY WILL BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS, THOUGH IF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, A FEW SNOW FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERALL THOUGH, NOTHING REALLY IMPACTFUL ON THE
HORIZON.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR THRU EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NW WINDS 5-15 KTS. WINDS
INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON, REACHING 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KTS LATE TODAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY, HOWEVER, BAND
OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN INTERVALS OF IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY FROM KPHL ON NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY
EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING. FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED IFR TEMPOS FOR
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND MVFR TEMPOS FURTHER SOUTH, BUT THESE WILL
SURELY NEED REFINEMENT.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER ANY LINGERING SNOW ENDS THIS
EVENING AND STAY VFR THRU FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM
THE NW, 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THRU THE PERIOD, POSSIBLY
TOPPING 35 KTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
NO HEADLINES PRESENTLY, BUT WITH COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT
HEADS EAST OF US TODAY THRU FRIDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO REALLY RAMP
UP. SCA STARTS AT DAWN TODAY, THOUGH MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO GET
GOING, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. MEANWHILE, GALES NOW
LOOK LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SO HOISTED GALES
FOR BOTH PERIODS FOR ALL WATERS. PERIODS OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
MAY ALSO IMPACT NAVIGATION, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE
GALE WARNING EXPIRES AS GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BE
AROUND 25- 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM
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