429
FXUS61 KPHI 201617
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1117 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, REMAINING IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF DELMARVA LATE THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS WILL EVER SO SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD BEHIND IT,
ENDING UP CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY.
ALOFT, A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL HEAD
GENERALLY EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THE REST OF TODAY, CROSSING
OUR REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE IT TOO HEADS OUT TO SEA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WE HAVE MADE ONLY SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL INCREASES
THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO INCREASING COVERAGE FOR CLOUDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. THE INCREASED CLOUDS WHICH HAVE ALREADY ARRIVED WILL KEEP
HIGHS TODAY BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY EVERYONE. POPS CONTINUE IN
THE CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
THE NW AREAS. THE NATURE OF THE PRECIP (SHOWERY) WILL MEAN THAT
THE SNOW WILL BE PERIODIC NOT PERSISTENT. THAT HAVING BEEN
SAID, EVEN THERE, WE'RE NOT LOOKING AT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO,
AND FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION, ACCUMULATIONS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. THE COLD TEMPS
COULD MEAN THAT UNTREATED ROADS COULD GET SLIPPERY ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, SO ANYONE WITH PLANS TO BE OUT AND
ABOUT SHOULD USE CAUTION AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW PASSES THIS EVENING, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND
THE WIND WILL BECOME THE MAIN STORY, WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
LITTLE LESS COLD TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. WINDS PEAK
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40 MPH. HOWEVER, THE
INCOMING AIR MASS IS ACTUALLY LESS SEVERE, SO TEMPS SHOULD
MODERATE AND HIGHS SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING FOR MANY UNDER
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVERALL. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S, WITH HIGHS GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY, IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S, WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINING A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER, WITH A SPREAD OF 20S REGION-WIDE.
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE END
OF FEBRUARY LOOKING A BIT WARMER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW
50S. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN
PLAY FOR NEXT WEEK BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH, ONE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND ANOTHER IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, THESE SYSTEMS LIKELY WILL BRING A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS, THOUGH IF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, A FEW SNOW FLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERALL THOUGH, NOTHING REALLY IMPACTFUL ON THE
HORIZON.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR MUCH OF THE TIME, BUT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SHARPLY LOWER VSBYS
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW-END MVFR OR
HIGH-END IFR CONDITIONS DURING SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NW WINDS 10
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. MEDIUM CONFID OVERALL.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER ANY LINGERING SNOW ENDS THIS
EVENING AND STAY VFR THRU FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM
THE NW, 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THRU THE PERIOD, POSSIBLY
TOPPING 35 KTS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SCA FLAGS IN EFFECT THRU THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS AND SEAS BUILD
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE, GALES NOW LOOK LIKELY
FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SO HOISTED GALES FOR BOTH
PERIODS FOR ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ONCE THE
GALE WARNING EXPIRES AS GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL BE
AROUND 25- 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH
NEAR TERM...RCM/PO
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/RCM/PO
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM/PO
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