763
FXUS61 KPHI 210644
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY, REMAINING IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING, WESTERN
VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CAPE HATTERAS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. ALOFT, LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA
WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE END
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A RETURN BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER PREDOMINATING. WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING EASTWARD TODAY, GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THANKS TO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
AWAY TO THE EAST. THUS, CAN EXPECT SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH
TODAY, THOUGH SKIES SHOULD TURN OUT RELATIVELY CLEAR AFTER EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POCONOS WHERE
CLOUDS LIKELY PERSIST ALL DAY ON THE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST THANKS TO THE
RETURN OF THE SUN, WITH 30S ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT THE
POCONOS, WHERE 20S WILL BE COMMON.
LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, AND MOST AREAS END UP BACK IN THE
TEENS.
SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPS, WITH 30S NORTH AND 40S
SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE FORCING OR MOISTURE TO
GENERATE PRECIP.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET PERIOD OF
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVERALL.
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY, IN THE LOW 40S
NORTH AND UPPER 40S SOUTH. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SPREAD
OF 20S REGION-WIDE.
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERALL, THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE END
OF FEBRUARY LOOKING A BIT WARMER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID AND UPPER 50S. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IN PLAY FOR NEXT WEEK BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS SLIDING THROUGH, ONE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND ANOTHER IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, THESE SYSTEMS LIKELY
WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS, THOUGH IF PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT, A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERALL THOUGH, NOTHING
REALLY IMPACTFUL ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY...VFR EXPECTED. ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
MOSTLY CLEAR AT MOST SITES BUT SOME CLOUDS FOR KRDG/KABE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW BUT DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
MARINE
GALES TODAY WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
TONIGHT BEFORE TOTALLY GOING SUB-ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MJL/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA/RCM
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