763
FXUS61 KPHI 210827
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY, REMAINING IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL SLOWLY
BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY THIS EVENING, WESTERN
VIRGINIA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CAPE HATTERAS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. ALOFT, LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND GREAT
LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA
WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE END
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A RETURN BACK TOWARDS MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER PREDOMINATING. WITH THE HIGH
BUILDING EASTWARD TODAY, GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THANKS TO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR WEST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
AWAY TO THE EAST. THUS, CAN EXPECT SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH
TODAY, THOUGH SKIES SHOULD TURN OUT RELATIVELY CLEAR AFTER EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS BREAK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POCONOS WHERE
CLOUDS LIKELY PERSIST ALL DAY ON THE UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST THANKS TO THE
RETURN OF THE SUN, WITH 30S ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT THE
POCONOS, WHERE 20S WILL BE COMMON.
LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, AND MOST AREAS END UP BACK IN THE
TEENS.
SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPS, WITH 30S NORTH AND 40S
SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE FORCING OR MOISTURE TO
GENERATE PRECIP.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD AND
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND
RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVERALL. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A SPREAD OF 40S EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS IN THE POCONOS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW
NJ WILL STAY IN THE 30S. LOWS REGION-WIDE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING WARMER BUT A LITTLE BIT UNSETTLED. THE PATTERN
TURNS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROLLING IN.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH LOOK WEAK AND RELATIVELY
UNIMPACTFUL.
THE FIRST ONE OF NOTE LOOKS TO MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AS A MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEM
SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS SOMETIME IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD, BUT POPS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 20-30%.
PRECIPITATION WOULD MAINLY BE RAIN, THOUGH SOME FLAKES/WINTRY MIX AT
ONSET CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR THURSDAY
THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A WARMER SOLUTION OVERALL
AND MAINLY RAIN, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION,
ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS.
PERHAPS THE BIGGER STORY OF THE LONG TERM IS THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S/50S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY...VFR EXPECTED. ANY LINGERING EARLY MORNING CLOUDS WILL
MOSTLY CLEAR AT MOST SITES BUT SOME CLOUDS FOR KRDG/KABE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW BUT DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (20-40%)
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
MARINE
GALES TODAY WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
TONIGHT BEFORE TOTALLY GOING SUB-ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM
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