211
FXUS61 KPHI 211538
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1038 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS MORE
UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
ON THE HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. ADDED SOME
FLURRIES TO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND READING AREA FOR SOME
ACTIVITY EARLIER. TWEAKS TO CLOUD GRIDS TOO. TEMPERATURE AND
WIND GRIDS WERE MOSTLY OK FOR THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALOFT, LARGE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY BUT
SURELY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THE NW FLOW WILL GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES.
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. THE LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, AND MOST
AREAS END UP BACK IN THE TEENS.
SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER JUMP IN TEMPS, WITH 30S NORTH AND 40S
SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE THE FORCING OR MOISTURE TO
GENERATE PRECIP.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD AND
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND RELATIVELY PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVERALL. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH A SPREAD OF
40S EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AREAS IN THE POCONOS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ WILL STAY IN THE 30S. LOWS REGION-
WIDE WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME THOUGH
THE ONLY NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING WARMER BUT A LITTLE BIT UNSETTLED. THE
PATTERN TURNS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROLLING IN. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH LOOK WEAK AND
RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL.
THE FIRST ONE OF NOTE LOOKS TO MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AS A MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS
SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PERIOD, BUT POPS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 20-30%. PRECIPITATION WOULD MAINLY BE RAIN,
THOUGH SOME FLAKES/WINTRY MIX AT ONSET CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS =DRY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FOR
THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMPARED
TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A WARMER
SOLUTION OVERALL AND MAINLY RAIN, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS.
PERHAPS THE BIGGER STORY OF THE LONG TERM IS THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S/50S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW BUT DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
(20-40%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
MARINE
GALES TODAY WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS
TONIGHT BEFORE TOTALLY GOING SUB-ADVISORY ON SATURDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM/PO
SHORT TERM...HOEFLICH
LONG TERM...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/RCM/PO
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM/PO
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