284
FXUS61 KPHI 211944
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
244 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, REMAINING IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS A LITTLE MORE
UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND PARTS OF BERKS
COUNTY EARLIER TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO
STRETCH ACROSS OUR REGION. SINCE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL
BE LOWERING, WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE COLD NIGHT WITH READINGS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND SOME LOW 20S FOR METRO
PHILADELPHIA AND DELMARVA. THESE TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRIDAY. SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE QUITE A
BIT LESS. THE WINDCHILL WON'T HAVE QUITE THE BITE. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH EARLY WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 5 MPH BY DAWN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THAT MEANS
A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY, SO WINDS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN ON FRIDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO, WITH
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION DONE, MILDER READINGS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR THE NW AREAS AND LOW 40S
FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY, DELMARVA AND MUCH OF SOUTH NJ. THESE VALUES
ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE TREND TOWARDS MILDER READINGS
CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK THROUGH FROM THE WEST OVER THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD HOWEVER THESE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ALSO STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF THESE WILL BE TO BRING SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEST TO EAST AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RELATIVELY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S EXCEPT LOW 20S OVER THE POCONOS, NW NJ AND THE
COLDER SPOTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NJ. SEASONABLE WEATHER CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (EXCEPT 35 TO 40 OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO NW NJ).
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL HELP
BRINGING AN INCREASING SW FLOW WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S (EXCEPT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NW NJ). THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND COMPARED
TO SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AT TIMES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BUT OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT HIGH IMPACT STORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS ONE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA BUT MAINLY JUST FOR EASTERN PA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO MODERATE SO ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN. IT WON'T BE AN ALL
DAY TYPE RAIN THOUGH AND HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO GET WELL UP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO EVEN SOME LOW 60S.
FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS THE
AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD BUT
LIKELY A TOUCH COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS
IS ALMOST A WEEK OUT, FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT YET
ON THIS SYSTEM'S STRENGTH, TRACK, AND TIMING. THAT SAID, INDICATIONS
ARE IT WILL BE REMAINING ON THE MILD SIDE MEANING RAIN WILL
GENERALLY FAVORED OVER SNOW. A POTENTIAL EXCEPTION INCLUDES THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT
VFR. CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FEW CLOUDS FAR N/W. GUSTY NW
WINDS LOWERING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFID.
SATURDAY
VFR. FEW CLOUDS EARLY THEN SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE (ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE). WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TURNING SOUTHWEST LATE. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (20-40%
CHANCE) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
WE'LL CONVERT THE GALE FLAG TO SCA WITH THE 330 CWF ISSUANCE. IT'LL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND DAWN FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS MAY BE LOWER BEFORE THOSE TIMES HOWEVER. FAIR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES
EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
ANZ430-431. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
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