898
FXUS61 KPHI 212345
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, REMAINING IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS A LITTLE MORE
UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, AND
NOW GENERALLY AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND WILL
BE DOWN TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, AND THEN DOWN TO UNDER
5 MPH IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND WILL
BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS AND SOME LOW 20S FOR METRO
PHILADELPHIA AND DELMARVA. THESE TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRIDAY. SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
QUITE A BIT LESS. THE WINDCHILL WON'T HAVE QUITE THE BITE.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 5 MPH
BY DAWN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THAT
MEANS A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY, SO
WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN ON FRIDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO, WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION DONE, MILDER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S FOR THE NW AREAS AND LOW 40S FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY,
DELMARVA AND MUCH OF SOUTH NJ. THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE TREND TOWARDS MILDER READINGS CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK THROUGH FROM THE WEST OVER THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD HOWEVER THESE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ALSO STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF THESE WILL BE TO BRING SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEST TO EAST AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RELATIVELY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S EXCEPT LOW 20S OVER THE POCONOS, NW NJ AND THE
COLDER SPOTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NJ. SEASONABLE WEATHER CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (EXCEPT 35 TO 40 OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO NW NJ).
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL HELP
BRINGING AN INCREASING SW FLOW WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S (EXCEPT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NW NJ). THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND COMPARED
TO SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AT TIMES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BUT OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT HIGH IMPACT STORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS ONE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA BUT MAINLY JUST FOR EASTERN PA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO MODERATE SO ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN. IT WON'T BE AN ALL
DAY TYPE RAIN THOUGH AND HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO GET WELL UP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO EVEN SOME LOW 60S.
FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS THE
AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD BUT
LIKELY A TOUCH COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS
IS ALMOST A WEEK OUT, FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT YET
ON THIS SYSTEM'S STRENGTH, TRACK, AND TIMING. THAT SAID, INDICATIONS
ARE IT WILL BE REMAINING ON THE MILD SIDE MEANING RAIN WILL
GENERALLY FAVORED OVER SNOW. A POTENTIAL EXCEPTION INCLUDES THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. SOME FU MAY BE VISIBLE AT KPHL/KPNE FROM A
NEARBY FIRE IN CAMDEN, NJ, BUT WITH WINDS FROM THE NW, THE FU IS
EAST OF THE KPHL/KPNE AND WILL NOT BLOW TOWARDS EITHER
TERMINAL. SKC-SCT250 OTHERWISE. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT, DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT BY 06Z, THEN TO LESS THAN
5 KT PRIOR TO 12Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. FEW-SCT250. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT, BACKING TO THE
SW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (20-40%
CHANCE) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
WE'LL CONVERT THE GALE FLAG TO SCA WITH THE 330 CWF ISSUANCE. IT'LL
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND DAWN FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS MAY BE LOWER BEFORE THOSE TIMES HOWEVER. FAIR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES
EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...MPS/OHARA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MPS/OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page