184
FXUS61 KPHI 220530
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, REMAINING
IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS A LITTLE MORE
UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH,
THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND WILL
BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS MOST AREAS AND SOME LOW 20S FOR METRO PHILADELPHIA AND
DELMARVA. THESE TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
THU INTO FRIDAY. SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LESS. THE
WINDCHILL WON'T HAVE QUITE THE BITE. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH EARLY WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 5 MPH BY DAWN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THAT
MEANS A CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY, SO
WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN ON FRIDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO, WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION DONE, MILDER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
30S FOR THE NW AREAS AND LOW 40S FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY,
DELMARVA AND MUCH OF SOUTH NJ. THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT
BELOW NORMAL, BUT THE TREND TOWARDS MILDER READINGS CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK THROUGH FROM THE WEST OVER THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD HOWEVER THESE WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ALSO STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
EFFECTS OF THESE WILL BE TO BRING SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEST TO EAST AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN RELATIVELY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S EXCEPT LOW 20S OVER THE POCONOS, NW NJ AND THE
COLDER SPOTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NJ. SEASONABLE WEATHER CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (EXCEPT 35 TO 40 OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS INTO NW NJ).
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE
NORTH ON MONDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL HELP
BRINGING AN INCREASING SW FLOW WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S (EXCEPT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
NW NJ). THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND COMPARED
TO SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN DRY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED AT TIMES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
BUT OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT HIGH IMPACT STORMS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS ONE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO
THE AREA BUT MAINLY JUST FOR EASTERN PA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO MODERATE SO ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN. IT WON'T BE AN ALL
DAY TYPE RAIN THOUGH AND HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO GET WELL UP INTO THE
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO EVEN SOME LOW 60S.
FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS THE
AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD BUT
LIKELY A TOUCH COOLER COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND THE
THURSDAY / THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SINCE THIS
IS ALMOST A WEEK OUT, FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT YET
ON THIS SYSTEM'S STRENGTH, TRACK, AND TIMING. THAT SAID, INDICATIONS
ARE IT WILL BE REMAINING ON THE MILD SIDE MEANING RAIN WILL
GENERALLY FAVORED OVER SNOW. A POTENTIAL EXCEPTION INCLUDES THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME WINTRY PRECIP.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. SOME FU MAY STILL BE VISIBLE AT
KPHL/KPNE FROM A NEARBY FIRE IN CAMDEN, NJ, BUT WITH WINDS FROM
THE NW, THE FU IS EAST OF THE KPHL/KPNE AND ANY FU WILL CONTINUE
TO BLOW AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY GOES ON.
WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE MORNING BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON, AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGHCONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESET
WINDS 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (20-40%
CHANCE) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE
BAY, BUT WAS EXTENDED ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY TO MATCH THE SCA ON
THE OCEAN, WHICH GOES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SMALL
CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEREAFTER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FAIR
WEATHER. OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES
EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page