386
FXUS61 KPHI 221857
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
PATTERN TURNS A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH, THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE HORIZON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS COMING
IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE DAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
FOR TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WILL
BRING THE AREA SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING
BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE. IT WON'T BE AS COLD
AS THIS MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S, EXCEPT LOW 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NW NJ, AND THE
COOLER SPOTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NJ SUCH AS THE PINE BARRENS.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. THE DAY WILL START
OUT MAINLY SUNNY BEFORE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLIP EAST OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASING WARMING TREND AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY, WITH NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP. A PASSING SHORTWAVE
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS, HOWEVER, KEEPING SUNSHINE A BIT LESS
ABUNDANT. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 20S, HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE I-78 CORRIDOR NORTH AND ALONG THE CHILLY
COASTAL STRIP. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST AREA LOOKING
LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY, WITH DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW SPOTS PERHAPS PASSING
60. AS THAT FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY, THERE COULD BE A
STRAY SHOWER, BUT RIGHT NOW CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS PRETTY LOW.
TEMPS COOL DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS BACK IN, WITH SOME SUN AND
HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE, THEN LOOKS LIKELY TO CROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT OF RAIN DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THURSDAY LIKELY REMAINS ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH 50S STILL PRETTY COMMON, BUT RIGHT NOW ITS
THE LAST DAY OF OUR 50S STRETCH.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST FOR FRIDAY, SO WE'LL COOL OFF AGAIN AS A
CANADIAN AIR MASS PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL NOT ALL
THAT BIG A JUMP, WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S STILL. A STRAY
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT, AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10-20 KT THOUGH A FEW GUSTS IN THE LOW 20S ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS, BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY TOUCH SCA CRITERIA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HOEFLICH/RCM
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...COOPER/HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM
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