155
FXUS61 KPHI 222023
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN AS OF
MID AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE THIN ENOUGH TO STILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.
FOR TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING
THE AREA SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE. IT WON'T BE AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, EXCEPT
LOW 20S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NW NJ, AND THE COOLER SPOTS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NJ SUCH AS THE PINE BARRENS.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. THE DAY WILL START OUT
MAINLY SUNNY BEFORE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. IN FACT,
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLIP EAST OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL
BE AN INCREASING WARMING TREND AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, WITH NO
REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP. A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS, HOWEVER, KEEPING SUNSHINE A BIT LESS ABUNDANT. AFTER A
CHILLY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S, HIGHS REBOUND
INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE I-78
CORRIDOR NORTH AND ALONG THE CHILLY COASTAL STRIP WHERE HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS
SHOULD RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST AREA LOOKING
LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EVEN MILDER
WEATHER TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN SOME LOW 60S. BY LATE DAY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NW NJ BUT POPS ARE
ONLY 15 TO 20 PERCENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY, WITH DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW SPOTS PERHAPS PASSING
60. AS THAT FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE DAY, THERE COULD BE A
STRAY SHOWER, BUT RIGHT NOW CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS PRETTY LOW.
TEMPS COOL DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS BACK IN, WITH SOME SUN AND
HIGHS AGAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE, THEN LOOKS LIKELY TO CROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT OF RAIN DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THURSDAY LIKELY REMAINS ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH 50S STILL PRETTY COMMON, BUT RIGHT NOW ITS
THE LAST DAY OF OUR 50S STRETCH.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST FOR FRIDAY, SO WE'LL COOL OFF AGAIN AS A
CANADIAN AIR MASS PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL NOT ALL
THAT BIG A JUMP, WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S STILL. A STRAY
SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR PREVAILING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AT GENERALLY AROUND
10 TO 15 WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS ON
SUNDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS, BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY TOUCH SCA CRITERIA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START TO INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page