289
FXUS61 KPHI 222046
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING
FAIR WEATHER. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN AS OF MID AFTERNOON BUT
THESE ARE THIN ENOUGH TO STILL ALLOW FOR SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
FOR TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING
THE AREA SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE
QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE. IT WON'T BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, EXCEPT LOW 20S OVER
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NW NJ, AND THE COOLER SPOTS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NJ SUCH AS THE PINE BARRENS.
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. THE DAY WILL START OUT
MAINLY SUNNY BEFORE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. IN FACT,
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
SLIP EAST OFF THE COAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL
BE AN INCREASING WARMING TREND AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, WITH NO
REAL CHANCE OF PRECIP. A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS,
HOWEVER, KEEPING SUNSHINE A BIT LESS ABUNDANT. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 20S, HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EXCEPT FOR THE I-78 CORRIDOR NORTH
AND ALONG THE CHILLY COASTAL STRIP WHERE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 40S. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT
IN A MILDER NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST AREA LOOKING LIKELY TO
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EVEN MILDER WEATHER
TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S TO EVEN SOME
LOW 60S. BY LATE DAY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NW NJ BUT POPS ARE ONLY 15
TO 20 PERCENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY NOT MANY CHANGES WITH THE LATEST LONG TERM UPDATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SHORT/NEAR TERM PERIODS WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH HEADS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST AND PROMOTES THE CREATION OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AREA. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE E/NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREA THURSDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THU AND INDICATE LESSER POPS FOR THU NIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. P-TYPE FAVORS RAIN FOR MOST LOCALS, BUT SOME SNOW
CHANCES FOR THE N/NW AREAS IS POSSIBLE TOO. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FAIR WEATHER FOR LATER FRIDAY AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU BUT THEN A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATER THU AND KNOCKS TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY. NORMALS FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF FEB.
ARE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWS AROUND 30.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR PREVAILING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AT GENERALLY AROUND
10 TO 15 WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WESTERLY WINDS ON
SUNDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS, BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY TOUCH SCA CRITERIA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS START TO INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...OHARA
AVIATION...COOPER/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS
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