117
FXUS61 KPHI 261611
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND THEN HIGH HIGHS IN FROM THE WEST BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
NO CHANGES WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS FULL DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
FOR TODAY, THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA. EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A FEW ISOLATED
OR SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE I-78 AND I-80 CORRIDORS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE, HOWEVER WOULDN'T RULE OUT A TENTH OR TWO UP IN THE
POCONOS. ELSEWHERE, A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. ONCE
AGAIN, IT WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST- NORTHWEST
WINDS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH, MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (POCONOS UPPER 30S) THANKS TO THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND COOL, DRY W-NW FLOW.
FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING, SO
WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO AROUND 5-10 MPH TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR, RESULTING IN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE URBAN CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, WILL ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. IT
WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE DRY, THIS
SYSTEM MAY BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFFSHORE, AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY, TOPPING OFF
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE. COOLER AT THE COASTS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DUE TO THE COLDER OCEAN INFLUENCE.
AS THAT WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT,
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE, MAINLY CAPPED AT 20 TO 40 PERCENT. QPF
WILL BE MINIMAL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, AND STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL IN THE 70S, POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR, AND IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE
COLDER OCEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WHICH ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60,
THESE HIGHS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN
THESE SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED
THE NBM AND WILL CAP POPS AT MAINLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY, AND THEN
SHOWERS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIKELY OVER MOST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON SUNDAY,
THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, AND THIS DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES COOL
OFF A BIT ON MONDAY, BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT BE UNDERWAY
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S ON MONDAY, AND THEN BACK INTO THE 50S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR WITH BKN CEILINGS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12-17 KT WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR/SKC. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KT, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERALL, VFR. SCATTERED SHRA WILL
RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR DELAWARE BAY AND OCEAN
ZONES SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
FALL BELOW 20 KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY...A SCA MAY BE NEEDED AS SEAS BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR TODAY, MINRH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-35% RANGE WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. UPON DISCUSSION WITH FIRE WEATHER
PARTNERS, FUELS HAVE NOT DRIED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TODAY.
ON THURSDAY, MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT.
WEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS.
AT LEAST AN SPS MAY BE NEEDED.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, LIMITING THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ452>455.
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...DESILVA/HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DESILVA/MPS
MARINE...DESILVA/HOEFLICH/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...DESILVA/MPS
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