199
FXUS61 KPHI 262253
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
653 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 650 PM, THE PASSAGE OF A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS EARLY THIS
EVENING HAS SUSTAINED SOME SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. THERE WAS EVEN A
FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MOUNT POCONO, PA
AREA. GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND A COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER, ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WILL END ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. A
WEAKENING/LESS COVERAGE TREND IS ONGOING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HELD ONTO SOME MORE
CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER THOUGH ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ THIS
EVENING, AND KEPT AN ISOLATED SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MENTIONED A
LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE, A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SKY
CLEARS OUT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY.
LOWS WILL END UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WITH LOW 30S WITHIN THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.
FOR THURSDAY, A RELATIVELY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED, THOUGH WITH SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH, WITH OUR REGION
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WHILE IT WON'T BE AS
BREEZY AS TODAY, GUSTS WILL BE 20-25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
(COOLER IN THE PARTS OF THE POCONOS).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT THE SURFACE, THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE. ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS
THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE DRY,
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IF ITS
APPROACH IS CLOSE ENOUGH. BUT AT THE MOMENT, POPS ARE MINIMAL ENOUGH
TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S LOWS.
AS A SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST THIS IS THE EXPECTATION. WARM
FRONTS CAN BE FINICKY THIS TIME YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE EXCEPTION, AS IS THE CASE MANY TIMES THIS TIME
OF YEAR, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL NEAR THE OCEAN AND BAYS.
OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT,
WE'VE PAINTED 20 TO 50% POPS IN THE GRIDS. ANY QPF WILL BE MINIMAL,
BUT WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
IF ALL GOES TO PLAN, WE'LL BE WARM SECTORED ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AROUND, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL VERY SLOWLY
ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN LOW APPROACHES ON
SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. SO WHILE THE WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE ON WARM SIDE, THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH. SUNDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE A SMIDGE COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THOUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WON'T REALLY GET GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SO
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RESEMBLE TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WILL CARRY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL, RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. CEILINGS 5-8 KFT CLEAR BY 02Z FOR KILG, KMIV, AND
KACY. REMAINING CLOUDS CLEAR ALL AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS
15-20 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR OCEAN ZONES
SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND DELAWARE BAY AS WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OCEAN
WATERS, MAINLY IN THE LOW 20S, WITH NO MARINE HEADLINES IN PLACE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
10-20 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS NEAR OR AT 5 FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 20-25 PERCENT IN
NEW JERSEY AND 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
DELAWARE AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE
AROUND 20 MPH. WITH MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND THE CONTINUED
DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS, THINKING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WILL SUFFICE TO COVER THE ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.
BEYOND THURSDAY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DIMINISH. HUMIDITY WILL RISE
WITH MINIMUM RHS OVER 35 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, GOING
EVEN HIGHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WETTING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ452>455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...COOPER/GORSE/HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...COOPER/KRUZDLO
MARINE...HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...HOEFLICH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page