857
FXUS61 KPHI 270138
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LOW
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 935 PM, THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ITS
ASSOCIATED 500 MB TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST TO OUR EAST. THE
EARLIER SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE JUST
DISSIPATED. THERE ARE SOME WEAKENING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST
SCATTERED FLURRIES A LITTLE LONGER IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OF EARLIER HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED
NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH JUST SOME POCKETS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD LEFT ACROSS MOSTLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OBSERVED DEW POINTS
ARE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE, AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH/SKY CLEARS IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WITH LOW
30S WITHIN THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.
FOR THURSDAY, A RELATIVELY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED, THOUGH WITH SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH, WITH OUR REGION
BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WHILE IT WON'T BE AS
BREEZY AS TODAY, GUSTS WILL BE 20-25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
(COOLER IN THE PARTS OF THE POCONOS).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT THE SURFACE, THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE. ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS
THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE DRY,
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IF ITS
APPROACH IS CLOSE ENOUGH. BUT AT THE MOMENT, POPS ARE MINIMAL ENOUGH
TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S LOWS.
AS A SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST THIS IS THE EXPECTATION. WARM
FRONTS CAN BE FINICKY THIS TIME YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE EXCEPTION, AS IS THE CASE MANY TIMES THIS TIME
OF YEAR, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL NEAR THE OCEAN AND BAYS.
OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT,
WE'VE PAINTED 20 TO 50% POPS IN THE GRIDS. ANY QPF WILL BE MINIMAL,
BUT WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
IF ALL GOES TO PLAN, WE'LL BE WARM SECTORED ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AROUND, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL VERY SLOWLY
ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN LOW APPROACHES ON
SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. SO WHILE THE WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE ON WARM SIDE, THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH. SUNDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE A SMIDGE COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THOUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WON'T REALLY GET GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SO
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RESEMBLE TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WILL CARRY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL, RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW
LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO NEAR 5 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MARINE
AS OF 935 PM, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY SURGE OF WIND HAS
RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS SO FAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME OVERNIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS NEAR OR AT 5 FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 20-25 PERCENT IN
NEW JERSEY AND 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
DELAWARE AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE
AROUND 20 MPH. WITH MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND THE CONTINUED
DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS, THINKING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WILL SUFFICE TO COVER THE ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.
BEYOND THURSDAY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DIMINISH. HUMIDITY WILL RISE
WITH MINIMUM RHS OVER 35 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, GOING
EVEN HIGHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WETTING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...COOPER/GORSE/HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...COOPER/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GORSE/HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...HOEFLICH
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