378
FXUS61 KPHI 270339
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1139 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST RUNNING ON TRACK, SO WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE DATABASE OTHER THAN TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE, AS WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH/SKY CLEARS IT WILL BE
A COLD NIGHT. LOWS WILL END UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WITH LOW
30S WITHIN THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.
FOR THURSDAY, A RELATIVELY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED, THOUGH WITH
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS). HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH, WITH OUR
REGION BEING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. WHILE IT
WON'T BE AS BREEZY AS TODAY, GUSTS WILL BE 20-25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S (COOLER IN THE PARTS OF THE POCONOS).
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT THE SURFACE, THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE. ALOFT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PASS
THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE DRY,
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IF ITS
APPROACH IS CLOSE ENOUGH. BUT AT THE MOMENT, POPS ARE MINIMAL ENOUGH
TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S LOWS.
AS A SUMMERLIKE BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMMENCES, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST THIS IS THE EXPECTATION. WARM
FRONTS CAN BE FINICKY THIS TIME YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THURSDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 60S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE EXCEPTION, AS IS THE CASE MANY TIMES THIS TIME
OF YEAR, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL NEAR THE OCEAN AND BAYS.
OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT,
WE'VE PAINTED 20 TO 50% POPS IN THE GRIDS. ANY QPF WILL BE MINIMAL,
BUT WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.
IF ALL GOES TO PLAN, WE'LL BE WARM SECTORED ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AROUND, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL VERY SLOWLY
ORGANIZE OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
ON MONDAY. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN LOW APPROACHES ON
SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. SO WHILE THE WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE ON WARM SIDE, THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CONTEND
WITH. SUNDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE A SMIDGE COOLER COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST.
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THOUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WON'T REALLY GET GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SO
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RESEMBLE TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WILL CARRY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL, RAIN OR A MIX OF
RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MARINE
WINDS ON THE WATERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KT, SO
WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN ON TAP THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS NEAR OR AT 5 FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 20-25 PERCENT IN
NEW JERSEY AND 25-30 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
DELAWARE AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND. WIND GUSTS WILL BE
AROUND 20 MPH. WITH MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND THE CONTINUED DRYING
OF THE FINE FUELS, THINKING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL
SUFFICE TO COVER THE ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.
BEYOND THURSDAY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DIMINISH. HUMIDITY WILL RISE
WITH MINIMUM RHS OVER 35 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, GOING
EVEN HIGHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WETTING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...COOPER/GORSE/HOEFLICH/MPS
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...COOPER/KRUZDLO
MARINE...HOEFLICH/KRUZDLO/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
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