054
FXUS61 KPHI 270720
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE AND REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN A VERY MILD WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SAG BACK
SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST AND
WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
SUNNY SKIES ON TAP TODAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL
TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, THOUGH COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS, ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND ALONG THE COASTS.
AS THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF DELMARVA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN THAT HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ON TAP
FOR TONIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT, AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY, THERE MAY BE
SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OTHERWISE. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN EARLY-SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN AS A VERY WARM AIRMASS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST US THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS PULLS AWAY ON FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US ALLOWING THE
RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN US ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY
OF BERMUDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE ENTIRE AREA TO BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL SAG BACK SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE FRONT LIFTS CLEAR OF THE AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? WELL, FRIDAY WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WITH 50S UP IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ALONG THE
COAST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, SOME ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
THE PASSING WARM FRONT. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES, SHOULD SEE
A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOP, SO HAVE KEPT 20-50% POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
QPF WILL BE MINIMAL HOWEVER, PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. LOWS WILL BE MILD RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
FOR SATURDAY, THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED IN THE WARM SECTOR, SO
EXPECTING A VERY MILD START TO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND, STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S, AND PERHAPS SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK
IN SOME SPOTS WITH 60S IN THE POCONOS AND ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
FALL WELL SHORT OF ANY RECORDS, BUT THIS DOES LOOK TO BE OUR WARMEST
DAY OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL SAG BACK SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S. THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY BACK NORTH AGAIN
ON SUNDAY. SO WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS
WARM COMPARED TO SATURDAY THANKS TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
AROUND, STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL BACK TO THE WEST
AND CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH
THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH, BUT IT IS QUITE TOO EARLY FOR ANY
SPECIFICS. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE CSU-MLP GUIDANCE AND BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER WHICH HAS PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK ON MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE'LL START TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR/SKC. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT, BECOMING W-NW 10 TO 15 KT WITH
20 TO 25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KT BY 00Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. S-SW WINDS AROUND 5 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL. SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TODAY WILL BECOME SW 5 TO 10 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT OVERALL NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DUE TO WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS AROUND
4-6 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS NEW JERSEY
AND FROM 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, THE EASTERN
SHORES OF MARYLAND, AND DELAWARE. THIS WILL BE COMBINED WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND THE
CONTINUED DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO COVER THE ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.
BEYOND THURSDAY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DIMINISH. HUMIDITY WILL RISE
WITH MINIMUM RHS OVER 35 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, GOING
EVEN HIGHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WETTING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...DESILVA
LONG TERM...DESILVA
AVIATION...DESILVA/MPS
MARINE...DESILVA/MPS
FIRE WEATHER...WFO PHI
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