660
FXUS61 KPHI 281755
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
155 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA TODAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THIS
MORNING BEFORE A MORE POTENT WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SAG BACK SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
10 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS DOWN A FEW HOURS GIVEN CONSISTENT
TRENDS IN GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
6AM UPDATE...
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY, MOST LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION OCCURRED AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE OTHERWISE REMAINED STEADY OR SLOWLY RISEN. ANY CLOUDS OVER
THE AREA WILL SCATTER OUT THROUGH SUNRISE OR SO.
OTHERWISE, A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
AFTER SOME MORNING SUNSHINE, CLOUDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SHOWERS THEN
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THAT WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION, AND SHOULD END OF JUST NORTH OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. QPF WILL BE MINIMAL,
GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR SO. POPS WILL BE CAPPED
AT CHANCE, GENERALLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT, HIGHEST POPS UP NORTH.
BEHIND THE INITIAL PUSH OF WARM AIR THIS MORNING, HIGHS WILL END UP
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S OVER SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S OR SO IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, AND IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLDER
OCEAN WATERS.
A WARMER NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S, AND IN THE MID 50S IN DELMARVA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE AN EARLY-SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN AS A
VERY WARM AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN US.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ALSO ON SATURDAY, THE WARM FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEFORE WILL STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL TEMPORARILY SAG BACK SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE LIFTING
BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
SO FOR SATURDAY, THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT MORE IN THE
WAY OF A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S INLAND, WITH 60S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, THIS SHOULD
PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FROM MOVING ALL THAT FAR INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SHOULD FALL SHORT OF ANY RECORDS, BUT THIS DOES LOOK TO
BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. HEADING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG BACK SOUTH AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
NORTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY NIGHT, NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE LOW
50S TO LOW 60S, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS THAT ARE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY WHICH MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS 'WARM' COMPARED TO SATURDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUD
COVER, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL BACK TO THE
WEST AND CROSS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
WITH THE FRONT AS IT TRACKS THROUGH, BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
ANY SPECIFICS. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT
OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH MODEST FLOW ALOFT,
THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT. THIS IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE CSU-MLP GUIDANCE AND BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER WHICH HAS PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK ON MONDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WE'LL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL US AND APPROACH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM, SO HAVE SIMPLY USED THE NBM FOR
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH OZ...VFR. A SW WIND AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND CEILINGS LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET. AROUND 23Z,
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR, HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY
IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 00Z TO 06Z IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 4000 FEET. CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FT, LIFT
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z TO OVER 10000 FEET. LLWS IS PRESENT AT 2000 FEET
FROM THE SW AT 40-50 KNOTS FROM AROUND 2Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AFTER 12Z. SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR DURING THE DAY, WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TUESDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT. WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
STARTING AT MIDNIGHT. THINK GUSTS WILL STAY JUST SHY OF 25 KT ON
DELAWARE BAY SO WILL NOT HOIST A SCA FOR THE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET. NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED ON THE
DELAWARE BAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT OVERALL NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 5-7 FEET. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ454-455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA
NEAR TERM...MPS/RCM
SHORT TERM...DESILVA
LONG TERM...DESILVA
AVIATION...GUZZO
MARINE...DESILVA/MPS
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